Find your seat
All 88 seats
A 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), applied to each seat’s 2022 result: a comparison, not a forecast.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The final two are the last two candidates in the count.
“Market favourite” is the runner with the highest chance in Sportsbet’s odds on 16 October 2026, with the chances rescaled to add to 100%; it’s our calculation from the odds, not our forecast. Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
- Albert Park
2022 result: Labor 61.2% · Coalition 38.8%
With the swing: Labor 52.2% · Coalition 47.8% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Labor, about 51%
- Ashwood
2022 result: Labor 56.2% · Coalition 43.8%
With the swing: Labor 47.2% · Coalition 52.8%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 61%
- Bass
2022 result: Labor 50.2% · Coalition 49.8%
With the swing: Labor 41.2% · Coalition 58.8%
Market favourite: One Nation, about 50%
- Bayswater
2022 result: Labor 54.2% · Coalition 45.8%
With the swing: Labor 45.2% · Coalition 54.8%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 68%
- Bellarine
2022 result: Labor 58.5% · Coalition 41.5%
With the swing: Labor 49.5% · Coalition 50.5%
Market favourite: Labor, about 41%
- Benambra
2022 result: Liberal 50.9% · Independent 49.1%
With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 50%
- Bendigo East
2022 result: Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2%
With the swing: Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2% (if two-party)
Market favourite: The Nationals, about 57%
- Bendigo West
2022 result: Labor 64.6% · Coalition 35.4%
With the swing: Labor 55.6% · Coalition 44.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Labor, about 42%
- Bentleigh
2022 result: Labor 58% · Coalition 42%
With the swing: Labor 49% · Coalition 51%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 51%
- Berwick
2022 result: Liberal 54.7% · Labor 45.3%
With the swing: Labor 36.3% · Coalition 63.7%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 74%
- Box Hill
2022 result: Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8%
With the swing: Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 57%
- Brighton
2022 result: Liberal 55.1% · Labor 44.9%
With the swing: Labor 35.9% · Coalition 64.1%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 83%
- Broadmeadows
2022 result: Labor 65.5% · Coalition 34.5%
With the swing: Labor 56.5% · Coalition 43.5% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Labor, about 75%
- Brunswick
2022 result: Greens 63.7% · Labor 36.3%
With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: The Greens, about 75%
- Bulleen
2022 result: Liberal 55.9% · Labor 44.1%
With the swing: Labor 35.1% · Coalition 64.9%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 77%
- Bundoora
2022 result: Labor 62.7% · Coalition 37.3%
With the swing: Labor 53.7% · Coalition 46.3%
Market favourite: Labor, about 61%
- Carrum
2022 result: Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2%
With the swing: Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2%
Market favourite: Labor, about 42%
- Caulfield
2022 result: Liberal 52.1% · Labor 47.9%
With the swing: Labor 38.9% · Coalition 61.1%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 76%
- Clarinda
2022 result: Labor 60.2% · Coalition 39.8%
With the swing: Labor 51.2% · Coalition 48.8%
Market favourite: Labor, about 47%
- Cranbourne
2022 result: Labor 59% · Coalition 41%
With the swing: Exact tie at 50% each (if two-party)
Market favourite: One Nation, about 42%
- Croydon
2022 result: Liberal 51.4% · Labor 48.6%
With the swing: Labor 39.6% · Coalition 60.4%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 69%
- Dandenong
2022 result: Labor 68.3% · Coalition 31.7%
With the swing: Labor 59.3% · Coalition 40.7%
Market favourite: Labor, about 74%
- Eildon
2022 result: Liberal 57% · Labor 43%
With the swing: Labor 34% · Coalition 66%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 60%
- Eltham
2022 result: Labor 59% · Coalition 41%
With the swing: Exact tie at 50% each
Market favourite: Labor, about 44%
- Essendon
2022 result: Labor 62.5% · Coalition 37.5%
With the swing: Labor 53.5% · Coalition 46.5%
Market favourite: Incomplete capture
- Eureka
2022 result: Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8%
With the swing: Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8% (if two-party)
Market favourite: One Nation, about 34%
- Euroa
2022 result: Nationals 59.9% · Labor 40.1%
With the swing: Labor 31.1% · Coalition 68.9% (if two-party)
Market favourite: The Nationals, about 64%
- Evelyn
2022 result: Liberal 55.4% · Labor 44.6%
With the swing: Labor 35.6% · Coalition 64.4%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 80%
- Footscray
2022 result: Labor 54.2% · Greens 45.8%
With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: Labor, about 58%
- Frankston
2022 result: Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3%
With the swing: Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3%
Market favourite: Labor, about 44%
- Geelong
2022 result: Labor 64.7% · Coalition 35.3%
With the swing: Labor 55.7% · Coalition 44.3%
Market favourite: Labor, about 61%
- Gippsland East
2022 result: Nationals 74.6% · Labor 25.4%
With the swing: Labor 16.4% · Coalition 83.6% (if two-party)
Market favourite: The Nationals, about 78%
- Gippsland South
2022 result: Nationals 65.6% · Labor 34.4%
With the swing: Labor 25.4% · Coalition 74.6% (if two-party)
Market favourite: The Nationals, about 72%
- Glen Waverley
2022 result: Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7%
With the swing: Labor 44.3% · Coalition 55.7%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 63%
- Greenvale
2022 result: Labor 57.1% · Coalition 42.9%
With the swing: Labor 48.1% · Coalition 51.9% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Labor, about 42%
- Hastings
2022 result: Labor 51.4% · Coalition 48.6%
With the swing: Labor 42.4% · Coalition 57.6%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 51%
- Hawthorn
2022 result: Liberal 51.7% · Labor 48.3%
With the swing: Labor 39.3% · Coalition 60.7%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 73%
- Ivanhoe
2022 result: Labor 62.8% · Coalition 37.2%
With the swing: Labor 53.8% · Coalition 46.2%
Market favourite: Labor, about 50%
- Kalkallo
2022 result: Labor 66.5% · Coalition 33.5%
With the swing: Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Labor, about 71%
- Kew
2022 result: Liberal 54% · Labor 46%
With the swing: Labor 37% · Coalition 63%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Kororoit
2022 result: Labor 64.5% · Coalition 35.5%
With the swing: Labor 55.5% · Coalition 44.5% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Lara
2022 result: Labor 65.9% · Coalition 34.1%
With the swing: Labor 56.9% · Coalition 43.1% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Laverton
2022 result: Labor 68.4% · Coalition 31.6%
With the swing: Labor 59.4% · Coalition 40.6% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Lowan
2022 result: Nationals 71.6% · Labor 28.4%
With the swing: Labor 19.4% · Coalition 80.6% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Macedon
2022 result: Labor 59.5% · Coalition 40.5%
With the swing: Labor 50.5% · Coalition 49.5%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Malvern
2022 result: Liberal 58.1% · Labor 41.9%
With the swing: Labor 32.9% · Coalition 67.1%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 79%
- Melbourne
2022 result: Greens 60.2% · Labor 39.8%
With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Melton
2022 result: Labor 54.6% · Coalition 45.4%
With the swing: Labor 45.6% · Coalition 54.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: One Nation, about 47%
- Mildura
2022 result: Nationals 51.2% · Independent 48.8%
With the swing: Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Mill Park
2022 result: Labor 61.6% · Coalition 38.4%
With the swing: Labor 52.6% · Coalition 47.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Monbulk
2022 result: Labor 57.6% · Coalition 42.4%
With the swing: Labor 48.6% · Coalition 51.4%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Mordialloc
2022 result: Labor 58.2% · Coalition 41.8%
With the swing: Labor 49.2% · Coalition 50.8%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Mornington
2022 result: Liberal 50.7% · Independent 49.3%
With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Morwell
2022 result: Nationals 54.4% · Labor 45.6%
With the swing: Labor 36.6% · Coalition 63.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Mulgrave
2022 result: Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2%
With the swing: Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Murray Plains
2022 result: Nationals 73.4% · Labor 26.6%
With the swing: Labor 17.6% · Coalition 82.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Narracan
2022 result: Liberal 63% · Independent 37% (2023 supplementary)
With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Narre Warren North
2022 result: Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3%
With the swing: Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Narre Warren South
2022 result: Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7%
With the swing: Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Nepean
2022 result: Liberal 56.4% · Labor 43.6%
With the swing: Labor 34.6% · Coalition 65.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Niddrie
2022 result: Labor 56.7% · Coalition 43.3%
With the swing: Labor 47.7% · Coalition 52.3%
Market favourite: The Liberals, about 45%
- Northcote
2022 result: Labor 50.2% · Greens 49.8%
With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: The Greens, about 54%
- Oakleigh
2022 result: Labor 63.5% · Coalition 36.5%
With the swing: Labor 54.5% · Coalition 45.5%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Ovens Valley
2022 result: Nationals 67.8% · Labor 32.2%
With the swing: Labor 23.2% · Coalition 76.8% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Pakenham
2022 result: Labor 50.4% · Coalition 49.6%
With the swing: Labor 41.4% · Coalition 58.6%
Market favourite: One Nation, about 55%
- Pascoe Vale
2022 result: Labor 52% · Greens 48%
With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Point Cook
2022 result: Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7%
With the swing: Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Polwarth
2022 result: Liberal 51.8% · Labor 48.2%
With the swing: Labor 39.2% · Coalition 60.8%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Prahran
2022 result: Greens 62% · Liberal 38%
With the swing: Greens v Liberal last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Preston
2022 result: Labor 52.1% · Greens 47.9%
With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- Richmond
2022 result: Greens 57.3% · Labor 42.7%
With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: The Greens, about 65%
- Ringwood
2022 result: Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5%
With the swing: Labor 48.5% · Coalition 51.5% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Ripon
2022 result: Labor 53% · Coalition 47%
With the swing: Labor 44% · Coalition 56% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Incomplete capture
- Rowville
2022 result: Liberal 53.7% · Labor 46.3%
With the swing: Labor 37.3% · Coalition 62.7%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Sandringham
2022 result: Liberal 55% · Labor 45%
With the swing: Labor 36% · Coalition 64%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Shepparton
2022 result: Nationals 56.8% · Independent 43.2%
With the swing: Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.
Market favourite: No market listed
- South Barwon
2022 result: Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2%
With the swing: Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2% (if two-party)
Market favourite: Incomplete capture
- South-West Coast
2022 result: Liberal 58% · Labor 42%
With the swing: Labor 33% · Coalition 67%
Market favourite: No market listed
- St Albans
2022 result: Labor 59.6% · Coalition 40.4%
With the swing: Labor 50.6% · Coalition 49.4% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Sunbury
2022 result: Labor 56.4% · Coalition 43.6%
With the swing: Labor 47.4% · Coalition 52.6% (if two-party)
Market favourite: One Nation, about 55%
- Sydenham
2022 result: Labor 58.8% · Coalition 41.2%
With the swing: Labor 49.8% · Coalition 50.2% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Tarneit
2022 result: Labor 62.3% · Coalition 37.7%
With the swing: Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7%
Market favourite: Labor, about 63%
- Thomastown
2022 result: Labor 65.8% · Coalition 34.2%
With the swing: Labor 56.8% · Coalition 43.2% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Warrandyte
2022 result: Liberal 54.3% · Labor 45.7%
With the swing: Labor 36.7% · Coalition 63.3%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Wendouree
2022 result: Labor 61.9% · Coalition 38.1%
With the swing: Labor 52.9% · Coalition 47.1%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Werribee
2022 result: Labor 60.9% · Coalition 39.1%
With the swing: Labor 51.9% · Coalition 48.1% (if two-party)
Market favourite: No market listed
- Williamstown
2022 result: Labor 63.4% · Coalition 36.6%
With the swing: Labor 54.4% · Coalition 45.6%
Market favourite: No market listed
- Yan Yean
2022 result: Labor 54.3% · Coalition 45.7%
With the swing: Labor 45.3% · Coalition 54.7% (if two-party)
Market favourite: One Nation, about 48%
Every swing result here assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two. “If two-party” marks the seats where, in our assessment, another party could also make the final two, so that assumption is less safe there.
| Seat | 2022 result | With a 9-point swing to the Coalition | Market favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Park | Labor 61.2% · Coalition 38.8% | Labor 52.2% · Coalition 47.8%if two-party | Labor, about 51% |
| Ashwood | Labor 56.2% · Coalition 43.8% | Labor 47.2% · Coalition 52.8% | The Liberals, about 61% |
| Bass | Labor 50.2% · Coalition 49.8% | Labor 41.2% · Coalition 58.8% | One Nation, about 50% |
| Bayswater | Labor 54.2% · Coalition 45.8% | Labor 45.2% · Coalition 54.8% | The Liberals, about 68% |
| Bellarine | Labor 58.5% · Coalition 41.5% | Labor 49.5% · Coalition 50.5% | Labor, about 41% |
| Benambra | Liberal 50.9% · Independent 49.1% | Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | The Liberals, about 50% |
| Bendigo East | Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2% | Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2%if two-party | The Nationals, about 57% |
| Bendigo West | Labor 64.6% · Coalition 35.4% | Labor 55.6% · Coalition 44.4%if two-party | Labor, about 42% |
| Bentleigh | Labor 58% · Coalition 42% | Labor 49% · Coalition 51% | The Liberals, about 51% |
| Berwick | Liberal 54.7% · Labor 45.3% | Labor 36.3% · Coalition 63.7% | The Liberals, about 74% |
| Box Hill | Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8% | Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8% | The Liberals, about 57% |
| Brighton | Liberal 55.1% · Labor 44.9% | Labor 35.9% · Coalition 64.1% | The Liberals, about 83% |
| Broadmeadows | Labor 65.5% · Coalition 34.5% | Labor 56.5% · Coalition 43.5%if two-party | Labor, about 75% |
| Brunswick | Greens 63.7% · Labor 36.3% | Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | The Greens, about 75% |
| Bulleen | Liberal 55.9% · Labor 44.1% | Labor 35.1% · Coalition 64.9% | The Liberals, about 77% |
| Bundoora | Labor 62.7% · Coalition 37.3% | Labor 53.7% · Coalition 46.3% | Labor, about 61% |
| Carrum | Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2% | Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2% | Labor, about 42% |
| Caulfield | Liberal 52.1% · Labor 47.9% | Labor 38.9% · Coalition 61.1% | The Liberals, about 76% |
| Clarinda | Labor 60.2% · Coalition 39.8% | Labor 51.2% · Coalition 48.8% | Labor, about 47% |
| Cranbourne | Labor 59% · Coalition 41% | Exact tie at 50% eachif two-party | One Nation, about 42% |
| Croydon | Liberal 51.4% · Labor 48.6% | Labor 39.6% · Coalition 60.4% | The Liberals, about 69% |
| Dandenong | Labor 68.3% · Coalition 31.7% | Labor 59.3% · Coalition 40.7% | Labor, about 74% |
| Eildon | Liberal 57% · Labor 43% | Labor 34% · Coalition 66% | The Liberals, about 60% |
| Eltham | Labor 59% · Coalition 41% | Exact tie at 50% each | Labor, about 44% |
| Essendon | Labor 62.5% · Coalition 37.5% | Labor 53.5% · Coalition 46.5% | Incomplete capture |
| Eureka | Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8% | Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8%if two-party | One Nation, about 34% |
| Euroa | Nationals 59.9% · Labor 40.1% | Labor 31.1% · Coalition 68.9%if two-party | The Nationals, about 64% |
| Evelyn | Liberal 55.4% · Labor 44.6% | Labor 35.6% · Coalition 64.4% | The Liberals, about 80% |
| Footscray | Labor 54.2% · Greens 45.8% | Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | Labor, about 58% |
| Frankston | Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3% | Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3% | Labor, about 44% |
| Geelong | Labor 64.7% · Coalition 35.3% | Labor 55.7% · Coalition 44.3% | Labor, about 61% |
| Gippsland East | Nationals 74.6% · Labor 25.4% | Labor 16.4% · Coalition 83.6%if two-party | The Nationals, about 78% |
| Gippsland South | Nationals 65.6% · Labor 34.4% | Labor 25.4% · Coalition 74.6%if two-party | The Nationals, about 72% |
| Glen Waverley | Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7% | Labor 44.3% · Coalition 55.7% | The Liberals, about 63% |
| Greenvale | Labor 57.1% · Coalition 42.9% | Labor 48.1% · Coalition 51.9%if two-party | Labor, about 42% |
| Hastings | Labor 51.4% · Coalition 48.6% | Labor 42.4% · Coalition 57.6% | The Liberals, about 51% |
| Hawthorn | Liberal 51.7% · Labor 48.3% | Labor 39.3% · Coalition 60.7% | The Liberals, about 73% |
| Ivanhoe | Labor 62.8% · Coalition 37.2% | Labor 53.8% · Coalition 46.2% | Labor, about 50% |
| Kalkallo | Labor 66.5% · Coalition 33.5% | Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5%if two-party | Labor, about 71% |
| Kew | Liberal 54% · Labor 46% | Labor 37% · Coalition 63% | No market listed |
| Kororoit | Labor 64.5% · Coalition 35.5% | Labor 55.5% · Coalition 44.5%if two-party | No market listed |
| Lara | Labor 65.9% · Coalition 34.1% | Labor 56.9% · Coalition 43.1%if two-party | No market listed |
| Laverton | Labor 68.4% · Coalition 31.6% | Labor 59.4% · Coalition 40.6%if two-party | No market listed |
| Lowan | Nationals 71.6% · Labor 28.4% | Labor 19.4% · Coalition 80.6%if two-party | No market listed |
| Macedon | Labor 59.5% · Coalition 40.5% | Labor 50.5% · Coalition 49.5% | No market listed |
| Malvern | Liberal 58.1% · Labor 41.9% | Labor 32.9% · Coalition 67.1% | The Liberals, about 79% |
| Melbourne | Greens 60.2% · Labor 39.8% | Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Melton | Labor 54.6% · Coalition 45.4% | Labor 45.6% · Coalition 54.4%if two-party | One Nation, about 47% |
| Mildura | Nationals 51.2% · Independent 48.8% | Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Mill Park | Labor 61.6% · Coalition 38.4% | Labor 52.6% · Coalition 47.4%if two-party | No market listed |
| Monbulk | Labor 57.6% · Coalition 42.4% | Labor 48.6% · Coalition 51.4% | No market listed |
| Mordialloc | Labor 58.2% · Coalition 41.8% | Labor 49.2% · Coalition 50.8% | No market listed |
| Mornington | Liberal 50.7% · Independent 49.3% | Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Morwell | Nationals 54.4% · Labor 45.6% | Labor 36.6% · Coalition 63.4%if two-party | No market listed |
| Mulgrave | Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2% | Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2% | No market listed |
| Murray Plains | Nationals 73.4% · Labor 26.6% | Labor 17.6% · Coalition 82.4%if two-party | No market listed |
| Narracan | Liberal 63% · Independent 37%2023 supplementary | Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Narre Warren North | Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3% | Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3%if two-party | No market listed |
| Narre Warren South | Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7% | Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7%if two-party | No market listed |
| Nepean | Liberal 56.4% · Labor 43.6% | Labor 34.6% · Coalition 65.4%if two-party | No market listed |
| Niddrie | Labor 56.7% · Coalition 43.3% | Labor 47.7% · Coalition 52.3% | The Liberals, about 45% |
| Northcote | Labor 50.2% · Greens 49.8% | Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | The Greens, about 54% |
| Oakleigh | Labor 63.5% · Coalition 36.5% | Labor 54.5% · Coalition 45.5% | No market listed |
| Ovens Valley | Nationals 67.8% · Labor 32.2% | Labor 23.2% · Coalition 76.8%if two-party | No market listed |
| Pakenham | Labor 50.4% · Coalition 49.6% | Labor 41.4% · Coalition 58.6% | One Nation, about 55% |
| Pascoe Vale | Labor 52% · Greens 48% | Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Point Cook | Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7% | Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7% | No market listed |
| Polwarth | Liberal 51.8% · Labor 48.2% | Labor 39.2% · Coalition 60.8% | No market listed |
| Prahran | Greens 62% · Liberal 38% | Greens v Liberal last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Preston | Labor 52.1% · Greens 47.9% | Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| Richmond | Greens 57.3% · Labor 42.7% | Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | The Greens, about 65% |
| Ringwood | Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5% | Labor 48.5% · Coalition 51.5%if two-party | No market listed |
| Ripon | Labor 53% · Coalition 47% | Labor 44% · Coalition 56%if two-party | Incomplete capture |
| Rowville | Liberal 53.7% · Labor 46.3% | Labor 37.3% · Coalition 62.7% | No market listed |
| Sandringham | Liberal 55% · Labor 45% | Labor 36% · Coalition 64% | No market listed |
| Shepparton | Nationals 56.8% · Independent 43.2% | Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply. | No market listed |
| South Barwon | Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2% | Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2%if two-party | Incomplete capture |
| South-West Coast | Liberal 58% · Labor 42% | Labor 33% · Coalition 67% | No market listed |
| St Albans | Labor 59.6% · Coalition 40.4% | Labor 50.6% · Coalition 49.4%if two-party | No market listed |
| Sunbury | Labor 56.4% · Coalition 43.6% | Labor 47.4% · Coalition 52.6%if two-party | One Nation, about 55% |
| Sydenham | Labor 58.8% · Coalition 41.2% | Labor 49.8% · Coalition 50.2%if two-party | No market listed |
| Tarneit | Labor 62.3% · Coalition 37.7% | Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7% | Labor, about 63% |
| Thomastown | Labor 65.8% · Coalition 34.2% | Labor 56.8% · Coalition 43.2%if two-party | No market listed |
| Warrandyte | Liberal 54.3% · Labor 45.7% | Labor 36.7% · Coalition 63.3% | No market listed |
| Wendouree | Labor 61.9% · Coalition 38.1% | Labor 52.9% · Coalition 47.1% | No market listed |
| Werribee | Labor 60.9% · Coalition 39.1% | Labor 51.9% · Coalition 48.1%if two-party | No market listed |
| Williamstown | Labor 63.4% · Coalition 36.6% | Labor 54.4% · Coalition 45.6% | No market listed |
| Yan Yean | Labor 54.3% · Coalition 45.7% | Labor 45.3% · Coalition 54.7%if two-party | One Nation, about 48% |
Every swing result here assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two. “If two-party” marks the seats where, in our assessment, another party could also make the final two, so that assumption is less safe there.
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d