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“Closest” means the smallest margin, the winning share above 50%. Held by is the holder recorded in our worksheet. The swing applies where Labor and the Coalition were the final two last time.

All 88 seats

A 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), applied to each seat’s 2022 result: a comparison, not a forecast.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The final two are the last two candidates in the count.

“Market favourite” is the runner with the highest chance in Sportsbet’s odds on 16 October 2026, with the chances rescaled to add to 100%; it’s our calculation from the odds, not our forecast. Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

  • Albert Park

    2022 result: Labor 61.2% · Coalition 38.8%

    With the swing: Labor 52.2% · Coalition 47.8% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Labor, about 51%

  • Ashwood

    2022 result: Labor 56.2% · Coalition 43.8%

    With the swing: Labor 47.2% · Coalition 52.8%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 61%

  • Bass

    2022 result: Labor 50.2% · Coalition 49.8%

    With the swing: Labor 41.2% · Coalition 58.8%

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 50%

  • Bayswater

    2022 result: Labor 54.2% · Coalition 45.8%

    With the swing: Labor 45.2% · Coalition 54.8%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 68%

  • Bellarine

    2022 result: Labor 58.5% · Coalition 41.5%

    With the swing: Labor 49.5% · Coalition 50.5%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 41%

  • Benambra

    2022 result: Liberal 50.9% · Independent 49.1%

    With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 50%

  • Bendigo East

    2022 result: Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2%

    With the swing: Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: The Nationals, about 57%

  • Bendigo West

    2022 result: Labor 64.6% · Coalition 35.4%

    With the swing: Labor 55.6% · Coalition 44.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Labor, about 42%

  • Bentleigh

    2022 result: Labor 58% · Coalition 42%

    With the swing: Labor 49% · Coalition 51%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 51%

  • Berwick

    2022 result: Liberal 54.7% · Labor 45.3%

    With the swing: Labor 36.3% · Coalition 63.7%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 74%

  • Box Hill

    2022 result: Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8%

    With the swing: Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 57%

  • Brighton

    2022 result: Liberal 55.1% · Labor 44.9%

    With the swing: Labor 35.9% · Coalition 64.1%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 83%

  • Broadmeadows

    2022 result: Labor 65.5% · Coalition 34.5%

    With the swing: Labor 56.5% · Coalition 43.5% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Labor, about 75%

  • Brunswick

    2022 result: Greens 63.7% · Labor 36.3%

    With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: The Greens, about 75%

  • Bulleen

    2022 result: Liberal 55.9% · Labor 44.1%

    With the swing: Labor 35.1% · Coalition 64.9%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 77%

  • Bundoora

    2022 result: Labor 62.7% · Coalition 37.3%

    With the swing: Labor 53.7% · Coalition 46.3%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 61%

  • Carrum

    2022 result: Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2%

    With the swing: Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 42%

  • Caulfield

    2022 result: Liberal 52.1% · Labor 47.9%

    With the swing: Labor 38.9% · Coalition 61.1%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 76%

  • Clarinda

    2022 result: Labor 60.2% · Coalition 39.8%

    With the swing: Labor 51.2% · Coalition 48.8%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 47%

  • Cranbourne

    2022 result: Labor 59% · Coalition 41%

    With the swing: Exact tie at 50% each (if two-party)

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 42%

  • Croydon

    2022 result: Liberal 51.4% · Labor 48.6%

    With the swing: Labor 39.6% · Coalition 60.4%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 69%

  • Dandenong

    2022 result: Labor 68.3% · Coalition 31.7%

    With the swing: Labor 59.3% · Coalition 40.7%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 74%

  • Eildon

    2022 result: Liberal 57% · Labor 43%

    With the swing: Labor 34% · Coalition 66%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 60%

  • Eltham

    2022 result: Labor 59% · Coalition 41%

    With the swing: Exact tie at 50% each

    Market favourite: Labor, about 44%

  • Essendon

    2022 result: Labor 62.5% · Coalition 37.5%

    With the swing: Labor 53.5% · Coalition 46.5%

    Market favourite: Incomplete capture

  • Eureka

    2022 result: Labor 57.2% · Coalition 42.8%

    With the swing: Labor 48.2% · Coalition 51.8% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 34%

  • Euroa

    2022 result: Nationals 59.9% · Labor 40.1%

    With the swing: Labor 31.1% · Coalition 68.9% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: The Nationals, about 64%

  • Evelyn

    2022 result: Liberal 55.4% · Labor 44.6%

    With the swing: Labor 35.6% · Coalition 64.4%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 80%

  • Footscray

    2022 result: Labor 54.2% · Greens 45.8%

    With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: Labor, about 58%

  • Frankston

    2022 result: Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3%

    With the swing: Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 44%

  • Geelong

    2022 result: Labor 64.7% · Coalition 35.3%

    With the swing: Labor 55.7% · Coalition 44.3%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 61%

  • Gippsland East

    2022 result: Nationals 74.6% · Labor 25.4%

    With the swing: Labor 16.4% · Coalition 83.6% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: The Nationals, about 78%

  • Gippsland South

    2022 result: Nationals 65.6% · Labor 34.4%

    With the swing: Labor 25.4% · Coalition 74.6% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: The Nationals, about 72%

  • Glen Waverley

    2022 result: Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7%

    With the swing: Labor 44.3% · Coalition 55.7%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 63%

  • Greenvale

    2022 result: Labor 57.1% · Coalition 42.9%

    With the swing: Labor 48.1% · Coalition 51.9% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Labor, about 42%

  • Hastings

    2022 result: Labor 51.4% · Coalition 48.6%

    With the swing: Labor 42.4% · Coalition 57.6%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 51%

  • Hawthorn

    2022 result: Liberal 51.7% · Labor 48.3%

    With the swing: Labor 39.3% · Coalition 60.7%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 73%

  • Ivanhoe

    2022 result: Labor 62.8% · Coalition 37.2%

    With the swing: Labor 53.8% · Coalition 46.2%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 50%

  • Kalkallo

    2022 result: Labor 66.5% · Coalition 33.5%

    With the swing: Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Labor, about 71%

  • Kew

    2022 result: Liberal 54% · Labor 46%

    With the swing: Labor 37% · Coalition 63%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Kororoit

    2022 result: Labor 64.5% · Coalition 35.5%

    With the swing: Labor 55.5% · Coalition 44.5% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Lara

    2022 result: Labor 65.9% · Coalition 34.1%

    With the swing: Labor 56.9% · Coalition 43.1% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Laverton

    2022 result: Labor 68.4% · Coalition 31.6%

    With the swing: Labor 59.4% · Coalition 40.6% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Lowan

    2022 result: Nationals 71.6% · Labor 28.4%

    With the swing: Labor 19.4% · Coalition 80.6% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Macedon

    2022 result: Labor 59.5% · Coalition 40.5%

    With the swing: Labor 50.5% · Coalition 49.5%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Malvern

    2022 result: Liberal 58.1% · Labor 41.9%

    With the swing: Labor 32.9% · Coalition 67.1%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 79%

  • Melbourne

    2022 result: Greens 60.2% · Labor 39.8%

    With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Melton

    2022 result: Labor 54.6% · Coalition 45.4%

    With the swing: Labor 45.6% · Coalition 54.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 47%

  • Mildura

    2022 result: Nationals 51.2% · Independent 48.8%

    With the swing: Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Mill Park

    2022 result: Labor 61.6% · Coalition 38.4%

    With the swing: Labor 52.6% · Coalition 47.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Monbulk

    2022 result: Labor 57.6% · Coalition 42.4%

    With the swing: Labor 48.6% · Coalition 51.4%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Mordialloc

    2022 result: Labor 58.2% · Coalition 41.8%

    With the swing: Labor 49.2% · Coalition 50.8%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Mornington

    2022 result: Liberal 50.7% · Independent 49.3%

    With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Morwell

    2022 result: Nationals 54.4% · Labor 45.6%

    With the swing: Labor 36.6% · Coalition 63.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Mulgrave

    2022 result: Labor 60.8% · Coalition 39.2%

    With the swing: Labor 51.8% · Coalition 48.2%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Murray Plains

    2022 result: Nationals 73.4% · Labor 26.6%

    With the swing: Labor 17.6% · Coalition 82.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Narracan

    2022 result: Liberal 63% · Independent 37% (2023 supplementary)

    With the swing: Liberal v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Narre Warren North

    2022 result: Labor 58.7% · Coalition 41.3%

    With the swing: Labor 49.7% · Coalition 50.3% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Narre Warren South

    2022 result: Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7%

    With the swing: Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Nepean

    2022 result: Liberal 56.4% · Labor 43.6%

    With the swing: Labor 34.6% · Coalition 65.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Niddrie

    2022 result: Labor 56.7% · Coalition 43.3%

    With the swing: Labor 47.7% · Coalition 52.3%

    Market favourite: The Liberals, about 45%

  • Northcote

    2022 result: Labor 50.2% · Greens 49.8%

    With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: The Greens, about 54%

  • Oakleigh

    2022 result: Labor 63.5% · Coalition 36.5%

    With the swing: Labor 54.5% · Coalition 45.5%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Ovens Valley

    2022 result: Nationals 67.8% · Labor 32.2%

    With the swing: Labor 23.2% · Coalition 76.8% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Pakenham

    2022 result: Labor 50.4% · Coalition 49.6%

    With the swing: Labor 41.4% · Coalition 58.6%

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 55%

  • Pascoe Vale

    2022 result: Labor 52% · Greens 48%

    With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Point Cook

    2022 result: Labor 58.3% · Coalition 41.7%

    With the swing: Labor 49.3% · Coalition 50.7%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Polwarth

    2022 result: Liberal 51.8% · Labor 48.2%

    With the swing: Labor 39.2% · Coalition 60.8%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Prahran

    2022 result: Greens 62% · Liberal 38%

    With the swing: Greens v Liberal last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Preston

    2022 result: Labor 52.1% · Greens 47.9%

    With the swing: Labor v Greens last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Richmond

    2022 result: Greens 57.3% · Labor 42.7%

    With the swing: Greens v Labor last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: The Greens, about 65%

  • Ringwood

    2022 result: Labor 57.5% · Coalition 42.5%

    With the swing: Labor 48.5% · Coalition 51.5% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Ripon

    2022 result: Labor 53% · Coalition 47%

    With the swing: Labor 44% · Coalition 56% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Incomplete capture

  • Rowville

    2022 result: Liberal 53.7% · Labor 46.3%

    With the swing: Labor 37.3% · Coalition 62.7%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Sandringham

    2022 result: Liberal 55% · Labor 45%

    With the swing: Labor 36% · Coalition 64%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Shepparton

    2022 result: Nationals 56.8% · Independent 43.2%

    With the swing: Nationals v Independent last time, so the swing doesn’t apply.

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • South Barwon

    2022 result: Labor 59.8% · Coalition 40.2%

    With the swing: Labor 50.8% · Coalition 49.2% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: Incomplete capture

  • South-West Coast

    2022 result: Liberal 58% · Labor 42%

    With the swing: Labor 33% · Coalition 67%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • St Albans

    2022 result: Labor 59.6% · Coalition 40.4%

    With the swing: Labor 50.6% · Coalition 49.4% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Sunbury

    2022 result: Labor 56.4% · Coalition 43.6%

    With the swing: Labor 47.4% · Coalition 52.6% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 55%

  • Sydenham

    2022 result: Labor 58.8% · Coalition 41.2%

    With the swing: Labor 49.8% · Coalition 50.2% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Tarneit

    2022 result: Labor 62.3% · Coalition 37.7%

    With the swing: Labor 53.3% · Coalition 46.7%

    Market favourite: Labor, about 63%

  • Thomastown

    2022 result: Labor 65.8% · Coalition 34.2%

    With the swing: Labor 56.8% · Coalition 43.2% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Warrandyte

    2022 result: Liberal 54.3% · Labor 45.7%

    With the swing: Labor 36.7% · Coalition 63.3%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Wendouree

    2022 result: Labor 61.9% · Coalition 38.1%

    With the swing: Labor 52.9% · Coalition 47.1%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Werribee

    2022 result: Labor 60.9% · Coalition 39.1%

    With the swing: Labor 51.9% · Coalition 48.1% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Williamstown

    2022 result: Labor 63.4% · Coalition 36.6%

    With the swing: Labor 54.4% · Coalition 45.6%

    Market favourite: No market listed

  • Yan Yean

    2022 result: Labor 54.3% · Coalition 45.7%

    With the swing: Labor 45.3% · Coalition 54.7% (if two-party)

    Market favourite: One Nation, about 48%

Every swing result here assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two. “If two-party” marks the seats where, in our assessment, another party could also make the final two, so that assumption is less safe there.

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d