Bendigo East
- Current member
- Jacinta Allan (Labor), former PremierRetiring (announced 14 August 2026)
Jacinta Allan is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Tim Rickwood.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 51.8% to the Coalition’s 48.2%, a margin of 1.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Cheryl HawkenOne Nation
- Andrew LethleanNationals
- Denali NorsenVictorian Socialists
- Tim RickwoodLabor
- Michael TolhurstGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Jacinta Allan is retiring, as announced on 14 August 2026.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat, and the BludgerTrack poll tracker lists it as a Nationals contest. Neither that nor Labor’s old margin tells us how a three-way contest would split. (pollbludger.net, pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes the Nationals the favourite here, at about 57%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, Labor would lead; the market makes the Nationals the favourite.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 60.8% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 39.2%, a margin of 10.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Jacinta Allan Labor48.3%
- Darin Schade Liberal27.4%
- Michael James Tolhurst Greens8.7%
- Ben Mihail One Nation5.7%
- James Laurie Independent3.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 22,010 | 48.3% | -2.0 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 12,478 | 27.4% | +6.5 |
| Michael James Tolhurst | Greens | 3,944 | 8.7% | +0.6 |
| Ben Mihail | One Nation | 2,597 | 5.7% | New |
| James Laurie | Independent | 1,603 | 3.5% | New |
| Vyonne McLelland-Howe | Animal Justice | 1,574 | 3.5% | New |
| Evelyn Keetelaar | Family First | 1,362 | 3% | New |
Final two in the count: Jacinta Allan (Labor) 60.9% · Darin Schade (Liberal) 39.1%. 45,568 formal votes, 2,184 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d