Murray Plains
- Current member
- Peter Walsh (Nationals)Retiring (announced 26 November 2024)
Peter Walsh is retiring; the Nationals’ candidate is Brett Hosking.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 82.4% to Labor’s 17.6%, a margin of 32.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Zoe CookGreens
- Christine GrundyLabor
- Brett HoskingNationals
- Garner SmithOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Peter Walsh is retiring, as announced on 26 November 2024.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The 23.4-point margin last time was against Labor; there’s no measured margin against One Nation. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 73.4% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 26.6%, a margin of 23.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Peter Walsh Nationals61.8%
- Damien Hurrell Labor18.8%
- Cameron MacPherson Family First6.4%
- Katia Bish Freedom4.4%
- John Brownstein Greens3.9%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Walsh | Nationals | 24,831 | 61.8% | +1.4 |
| Damien Hurrell | Labor | 7,543 | 18.8% | -0.6 |
| Cameron MacPherson | Family First | 2,575 | 6.4% | New |
| Katia Bish | Freedom | 1,752 | 4.4% | New |
| John Brownstein | Greens | 1,560 | 3.9% | -0.4 |
| Andrea Otto | Independent | 1,022 | 2.5% | New |
| Glenys Leung | Animal Justice | 908 | 2.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Peter Walsh (Nationals) 72.9% · Damien Hurrell (Labor) 27.1%. 40,191 formal votes, 2,635 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d