Sunbury
- Current member
- Josh Bull (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 52.6% to Labor’s 47.4%, a margin of 2.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Adam BremnerVictorian Socialists
- Josh BullLaborSitting member
- Simmone CottomLiberal
- Elita DabrowskiOne Nation
- Bruce LancashireWest Party
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. No local vote shares or preference estimates support an earlier lean towards the Coalition. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 55%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes One Nation the favourite. The swing comparison assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The market suggests One Nation could be one of them instead.
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Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 56.4% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 43.6%, a margin of 6.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Josh Bull Labor43.1%
- Simmone Cottom Liberal31.5%
- Richard Burke Greens6.5%
- Rohanna Mohr Animal Justice4.1%
- Charles Pace Family First3.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bull | Labor | 16,253 | 43.1% | -15.5 |
| Simmone Cottom | Liberal | 11,895 | 31.5% | -2.1 |
| Richard Burke | Greens | 2,459 | 6.5% | -1.2 |
| Rohanna Mohr | Animal Justice | 1,537 | 4.1% | New |
| Charles Pace | Family First | 1,445 | 3.8% | New |
| Laurence Pincini | Independent | 1,432 | 3.8% | New |
| Peter Bayliss | Democratic Labour | 1,317 | 3.5% | New |
| James Gallagher | Victorian Socialists | 1,164 | 3.1% | New |
| Rushi Vijaykumar Patel | New Democrats | 204 | 0.5% | New |
Final two in the count: Josh Bull (Labor) 56.4% · Simmone Cottom (Liberal) 43.6%. 37,706 formal votes, 2,620 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d