Eildon

Current member: Cindy McLeish (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 43%57% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 34%66% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 66% to Labor’s 34%, a margin of 16 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Tim BarberOne Nation
Chloe BondAnimal Justice
Kevin GibsonLabor
Talia GulpililGreens
Cindy McLeishLiberalSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 60%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 57% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 43%, a margin of 7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Cindy McLeish Liberal47.5%
Jane Judd Labor29%
Wil Mikelsons Greens11.2%
Tim Lacey Family First3.4%
Joshua Rusic Freedom3.4%

3 other candidates, 5.7% between them.

See all results

Eildon, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Cindy McLeish	Liberal	20,119	47.5%	+0.7
Jane Judd	Labor	12,284	29%	-7.9
Wil Mikelsons	Greens	4,753	11.2%	+0.4
Tim Lacey	Family First	1,437	3.4%	New
Joshua Rusic	Freedom	1,426	3.4%	New
Chloe Bond	Animal Justice	1,340	3.2%	New
Kammy Cordner Hunt	Independent	581	1.4%	New
Robert Thornton	Independent	459	1.1%	New

Final two in the count: Cindy McLeish (Liberal) 57.1% · Jane Judd (Labor) 42.9%. 42,399 formal votes, 2,343 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d