Morwell
- Current member
- Martin Cameron (Nationals)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 63.4% to Labor’s 36.6%, a margin of 13.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Martin CameronNationalsSitting member
- Rochelle HineGreens
- Tracie LundLabor
- Casey MurphyOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The 4.4-point margin last time was against Labor, not One Nation, and there’s no sourced margin against One Nation. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 54.4% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 45.6%, a margin of 4.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Kate Maxfield Labor31.4%
- Martin Cameron Nationals22.9%
- Dale Harriman Liberal15.5%
- Allan Hicken One Nation6.1%
- Sharon Gibson Independent5.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Maxfield | Labor | 13,601 | 31.4% | -6.8 |
| Martin Cameron | Nationals | 9,902 | 22.9% | +14.3 |
| Dale Harriman | Liberal | 6,710 | 15.5% | +0.2 |
| Allan Hicken | One Nation | 2,648 | 6.1% | New |
| Sharon Gibson | Independent | 2,515 | 5.8% | New |
| David Snelling | Shooters | 2,044 | 4.7% | -0.9 |
| Rochelle Hine | Greens | 1,830 | 4.2% | +0.4 |
| Tracie Lund | Independent | 1,206 | 2.8% | New |
| Alex Maidana | Freedom | 900 | 2.1% | New |
| Brendan Clarke | Family First | 749 | 1.7% | New |
| Jessica McAuliffe | Animal Justice | 687 | 1.6% | New |
| Lisa Proctor | Independent | 469 | 1.1% | New |
Final two in the count: Martin Cameron (Nationals) 54.7% · Kate Maxfield (Labor) 45.3%. 43,261 formal votes, 3,526 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d