Essendon
- Current member
- Danny Pearson (Labor)Retiring (announced 10 April 2026)
Danny Pearson is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Kat Theodosis.
Swing comparison
Labor lean
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 53.5% to the Coalition’s 46.5%, a margin of 3.5 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- John BarnesOne Nation
- Tommy Le DeuxLiberal
- Michal KedemVictorian Socialists
- Kat TheodosisLabor
- James WilliamsGreens
- Oscar YildizIndependent
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Coalition
What has changed
- Danny Pearson is retiring, as announced on 10 April 2026.
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Betting market
We saw only some of Sportsbet's runners for this seat on 16 October 2026, so no chance can be worked out from them.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 62.5% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 37.5%, a margin of 12.5 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Danny Pearson Labor41.1%
- Angelo Baronessa Liberal29.5%
- Jared Prentis Greens15.2%
- Daniel Nair Dadich Victorian Socialists4.7%
- Gayle Williams Animal Justice2.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Pearson | Labor | 17,196 | 41.1% | -5.2 |
| Angelo Baronessa | Liberal | 12,331 | 29.5% | +1.9 |
| Jared Prentis | Greens | 6,344 | 15.2% | -1.7 |
| Daniel Nair Dadich | Victorian Socialists | 1,951 | 4.7% | New |
| Gayle Williams | Animal Justice | 1,173 | 2.8% | +2.8 |
| Nicholas Hope | Reason Party | 1,018 | 2.4% | +2.4 |
| David Wright | Freedom | 1,006 | 2.4% | New |
| Margaret Muir | Family First | 848 | 2% | New |
Final two in the count: Danny Pearson (Labor) 63% · Angelo Baronessa (Liberal) 37%. 41,867 formal votes, 1,761 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d