Frankston

Current member: Paul Edbrooke (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 58.7%41.3% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 49.7%50.3% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 50.3% to Labor’s 49.7%, a margin of 0.3 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Chrysten AbrahamIndependent
Bree AmbryLiberal
Andrew CheesemanVictorian Socialists
Paul EdbrookeLaborSitting member
Katie GoulasGreens
Julie HarmanAnimal Justice
Paul StaffordOne Nation

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 44%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes Labor the favourite.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 58.7% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41.3%, a margin of 8.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Paul Edbrooke Labor41.5%
Michael O'Reilly Liberal29.4%
Emily Green Greens12.7%
Dragan Suric Freedom3.6%
Chrysten Abraham Liberal Democrats3.6%

4 other candidates, 9.1% between them.

See all results

Frankston, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Paul Edbrooke	Labor	16,595	41.5%	-4.8
Michael O'Reilly	Liberal	11,762	29.4%	-2.9
Emily Green	Greens	5,060	12.7%	+5.0
Dragan Suric	Freedom	1,443	3.6%	New
Chrysten Abraham	Liberal Democrats	1,420	3.6%	New
Elizabeth Johnston	Animal Justice	1,365	3.4%	+0.6
Richard Brown	Family First	1,083	2.7%	New
Darren Paul Bergwerf	Independent	844	2.1%	New
Henry Kelsall	Independent	369	0.9%	New

Final two in the count: Paul Edbrooke (Labor) 58.7% · Michael O'Reilly (Liberal) 41.3%. 39,941 formal votes, 2,323 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d