Narre Warren South
- Current member
- Gary Maas (Labor)Retiring (announced 5 June 2026)
Gary Maas is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Stefan Koomen.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 50.7% to Labor’s 49.3%, a margin of 0.7 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Trevor HammondOne Nation
- Stefan KoomenLabor
- Bailey McCrackenVictorian Socialists
- Jill NambuGreens
- Norliah PetersonLiberal
- Scott WatsonIndependent
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Gary Maas is retiring, as announced on 5 June 2026.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: A possible three-way contest is still unresolved. With the swing the Coalition would lead by just 0.7 points, which doesn’t settle the real contest.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 58.3% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41.7%, a margin of 8.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Gary Maas Labor48%
- Annette Samuel Liberal28.7%
- Susanna Moore Greens6.6%
- Jacqueline Harvey Family First5.8%
- Geoff Hansen Freedom5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Maas | Labor | 20,562 | 48% | -4.1 |
| Annette Samuel | Liberal | 12,280 | 28.7% | -4.3 |
| Susanna Moore | Greens | 2,836 | 6.6% | +0.9 |
| Jacqueline Harvey | Family First | 2,495 | 5.8% | New |
| Geoff Hansen | Freedom | 2,136 | 5% | New |
| Christine Skrobo | Liberal Democrats | 1,212 | 2.8% | New |
| Michael Gallagher | Animal Justice | 1,048 | 2.4% | New |
| Tylere Baker-Pearce | Independent | 290 | 0.7% | New |
Final two in the count: Gary Maas (Labor) 58.5% · Annette Samuel (Liberal) 41.5%. 42,859 formal votes, 3,349 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d