Monbulk
- Current member
- Daniela De Martino (Labor)Standing again
Swing comparison
Coalition lean
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51.4% to Labor’s 48.6%, a margin of 1.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Merran BlairGreens
- Adrian DowellOne Nation
- Clare FitzmauriceLiberal
- Craig MannersFamily First
- Daniela De MartinoLaborSitting member
- Alyssa WormaldAnimal Justice
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Coalition
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Ranked by Labor’s margin, this is the 16th seat the Coalition could gain. It would decide a majority only if the Coalition also kept all 28 seats it won in 2022, plus Prahran.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 57.6% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42.4%, a margin of 7.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Daniela De Martino Labor36.1%
- Gareth Ward Liberal29.5%
- Michael Ormsby Greens15%
- Johanna Skelton Independent5.3%
- Craig Cole Independent5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniela De Martino | Labor | 15,071 | 36.1% | -6.0 |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 12,327 | 29.5% | -8.0 |
| Michael Ormsby | Greens | 6,255 | 15% | -1.2 |
| Johanna Skelton | Independent | 2,229 | 5.3% | New |
| Craig Cole | Independent | 2,069 | 5% | New |
| Leah Folloni | Animal Justice | 1,739 | 4.2% | +4.1 |
| David Higgins | Family First | 1,197 | 2.9% | New |
| Veronica Barnes | Freedom | 910 | 2.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Daniela De Martino (Labor) 57.6% · Gareth Ward (Liberal) 42.4%. 41,797 formal votes, 2,063 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d