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Election explorer

Hastings

Current member
Paul Mercurio (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 51.4%48.6% Coalition
With the selected swing
Labor 42.4%57.6% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 57.6% to Labor’s 42.4%, a margin of 7.6 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Peter AngelicoOne Nation
  • Chloe CoulsonAnimal Justice
  • Paul MercurioLaborSitting member
  • Frank SchieflerLiberal
  • Isaac WilloughbyGreens

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

  • A party has been reported as targeting this seat. That's a sign to watch it, not a result.
  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 51%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 51.4% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 48.6%, a margin of 1.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Briony Hutton Liberal39.8%
  • Paul Mercurio Labor37.3%
  • Paul Saunders Greens10%
  • Tyson Jack Animal Justice4.2%
  • Janet Felicity Benson Freedom3%
3 other candidates, 5.7% between them.
See all results
Hastings, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Briony HuttonLiberal16,41539.8%-5.2
Paul MercurioLabor15,36137.3%-1.2
Paul SaundersGreens4,11810%-0.2
Tyson JackAnimal Justice1,7364.2%-1.8
Janet Felicity BensonFreedom1,2353%New
Tom SaboFamily First1,0012.4%New
Camille De WitDemocratic Labour8332%New
Robert WhitehillIndependent5331.3%New

Final two in the count: Paul Mercurio (Labor) 51.2% · Briony Hutton (Liberal) 48.8%. 41,232 formal votes, 2,369 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d