Croydon

Current member: David Hodgett (Liberal)Retiring (announced 6 August 2025)

David Hodgett is retiring; the Liberals’ candidate is Toby Wooldridge.

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 48.6%51.4% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 39.6%60.4% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 60.4% to Labor’s 39.6%, a margin of 10.4 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Richard FarrLabor
Lini FernandoGreens
Beth GrimshawVictorian Socialists
David VanderwolfIndependent
Toby WooldridgeLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What has changed

David Hodgett is retiring, as announced on 6 August 2025.

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 69%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 51.4% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 48.6%, a margin of 1.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

David Hodgett Liberal43%
Sorina Grasso Labor34.1%
Brendan Powell Greens10.8%
Dan Nebauer Family First4.5%
Sophia De Wit Democratic Labour4.3%

1 other candidate, 3.3% between them.

See all results

Croydon, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
David Hodgett	Liberal	19,605	43%	-3.5
Sorina Grasso	Labor	15,564	34.1%	-5.4
Brendan Powell	Greens	4,940	10.8%	+1.8
Dan Nebauer	Family First	2,051	4.5%	New
Sophia De Wit	Democratic Labour	1,978	4.3%	+4.1
Harley McDonald-Eckersall	Animal Justice	1,501	3.3%	-1.2

Final two in the count: David Hodgett (Liberal) 51.3% · Sorina Grasso (Labor) 48.7%. 45,639 formal votes, 2,054 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d