Narre Warren North
- Current member
- Belinda Wilson (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 50.3% to Labor’s 49.7%, a margin of 0.3 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Sebastian CrutchfieldOne Nation
- Shemane NathanielszLiberal
- Hayley PerryGreens
- Belinda WilsonLaborSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: A possible three-way contest is still unresolved. With the swing the Coalition would lead by just 0.3 points, which doesn’t settle the real contest.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 58.7% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41.3%, a margin of 8.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Belinda Wilson Labor46.8%
- Timothy Dragan Liberal27.3%
- Laura McLean Greens6.8%
- Christine Elkins Family First3.7%
- Stephen Matulec Liberal Democrats3.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belinda Wilson | Labor | 19,350 | 46.8% | -4.2 |
| Timothy Dragan | Liberal | 11,291 | 27.3% | -8.3 |
| Laura McLean | Greens | 2,809 | 6.8% | +0.5 |
| Christine Elkins | Family First | 1,530 | 3.7% | New |
| Stephen Matulec | Liberal Democrats | 1,325 | 3.2% | New |
| Craig Parker | Freedom | 1,218 | 2.9% | New |
| Andrew Zmegac | Democratic Labour | 1,191 | 2.9% | -1.1 |
| Sheree Gardner | Animal Justice | 978 | 2.4% | New |
| Stephen Capon | Independent | 906 | 2.2% | New |
| Monique Ruyter | Shooters | 772 | 1.9% | New |
Final two in the count: Belinda Wilson (Labor) 59.2% · Timothy Dragan (Liberal) 40.8%. 41,370 formal votes, 3,602 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d