Laverton
- Current member
- Sarah Connolly (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 59.4% to the Coalition’s 40.6%, a margin of 9.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Sarah ConnollyLaborSitting member
- Shohre MansouriAnimal Justice
- Lucy NguyenGreens
- Ghada NouneLiberal
- Van Thanh RuddVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Labor against One Nation as the final two hasn’t been confirmed. Neither Labor’s past margin over the Coalition nor statewide polling of Labor against One Nation tells us who would win here.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 68.4% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 31.6%, a margin of 18.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Sarah Connolly Labor45.8%
- Raja Reddy Liberal22.2%
- Braishna Durzada Greens9.4%
- Catherine Robertson Victorian Socialists5.9%
- Michael Wirth Democratic Labour5.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Connolly | Labor | 17,026 | 45.8% | -11.6 |
| Raja Reddy | Liberal | 8,233 | 22.2% | +1.5 |
| Braishna Durzada | Greens | 3,496 | 9.4% | -2.6 |
| Catherine Robertson | Victorian Socialists | 2,206 | 5.9% | New |
| Michael Wirth | Democratic Labour | 2,051 | 5.5% | New |
| David Fry | Family First | 1,353 | 3.6% | New |
| Gurneet Soni | New Democrats | 1,082 | 2.9% | New |
| Pouya Bagheri | Animal Justice | 694 | 1.9% | -1.9 |
| Trent Raymond | Freedom | 641 | 1.7% | New |
| Rufo Paredes | Independent | 355 | 1% | New |
Final two in the count: Sarah Connolly (Labor) 68% · Raja Reddy (Liberal) 32%. 37,137 formal votes, 3,144 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d