Bendigo West
- Current member
- Maree Edwards (Labor), SpeakerRetiring (announced 27 August 2026)
Maree Edwards is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Brenton Baldwin.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 55.6% to the Coalition’s 44.4%, a margin of 5.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Brenton BaldwinLabor
- David HutchingsNationals
- Ellen MorganOne Nation
- Tayne ShalevskiVictorian Socialists
- Liza ShawGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Maree Edwards is retiring, as announced on 27 August 2026.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. An earlier reading leaned towards Labor, but no local figures for a three-way contest support it. (pollbludger.net, pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 42%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast. Little separates the leading contenders: the top two chances are within 5 points.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 64.6% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 35.4%, a margin of 14.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Maree Edwards Labor46.5%
- Ken Price Liberal25%
- James Searle Greens11.5%
- Wayne Taylor Legalise Cannabis5.4%
- Steve Serpell Family First4.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maree Edwards | Labor | 18,704 | 46.5% | -7.0 |
| Ken Price | Liberal | 10,057 | 25% | -2.1 |
| James Searle | Greens | 4,634 | 11.5% | -1.5 |
| Wayne Taylor | Legalise Cannabis | 2,175 | 5.4% | New |
| Steve Serpell | Family First | 1,704 | 4.2% | New |
| Victoria Maxwell | Animal Justice | 1,040 | 2.6% | -3.8 |
| Matt Bansemer | Independent | 979 | 2.4% | New |
| Richard James Woolley | Freedom | 606 | 1.5% | New |
| Marilyn Nuske | Independent | 349 | 0.9% | New |
Final two in the count: Maree Edwards (Labor) 64.3% · Ken Price (Liberal) 35.7%. 40,248 formal votes, 2,401 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d