Caulfield

Current member: David Southwick (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 47.9%52.1% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 38.9%61.1% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 61.1% to Labor’s 38.9%, a margin of 11.1 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Malak AbabnehVictorian Socialists
Angel DolejsiGreens
Genevieve GilbertFamily First
David SouthwickLiberalSitting member
Mikaela StafraceLabor

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 76%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 52.1% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 47.9%, a margin of 2.1 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

David Southwick Liberal44.5%
Lior Harel Labor27.8%
Rachel Iampolski Greens15.8%
Nomi Kaltmann Independent6.5%
Asher Myerson Animal Justice2.2%

2 other candidates, 3.2% between them.

See all results

Caulfield, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
David Southwick	Liberal	18,088	44.5%	-1.5
Lior Harel	Labor	11,301	27.8%	-6.2
Rachel Iampolski	Greens	6,447	15.8%	+1.0
Nomi Kaltmann	Independent	2,643	6.5%	New
Asher Myerson	Animal Justice	908	2.2%	-0.8
Michael Abelman	Liberal Democrats	739	1.8%	New
Lynne Edwell	Family First	557	1.4%	New

Final two in the count: David Southwick (Liberal) 52.1% · Lior Harel (Labor) 47.9%. 40,683 formal votes, 1,374 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d