Skip to content
Election explorer

Evelyn

Current member
Bridget Vallence (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 44.6%55.4% Liberal
With the selected swing
Labor 35.6%64.4% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 64.4% to Labor’s 35.6%, a margin of 14.4 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Jan HealdAnimal Justice
  • Andrew HenleyGreens
  • Daniel KilleyOne Nation
  • Analise SherlockLabor
  • Bridget VallenceLiberalSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

  • A party has been reported as targeting this seat. That's a sign to watch it, not a result.
  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 80%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 55.4% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 44.6%, a margin of 5.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Bridget Vallence Liberal46.7%
  • Lorna Dent Labor32.7%
  • Andrew Henley Greens9.3%
  • Jeanette Dobson Family First5.3%
  • Jan Heald Animal Justice4.2%
2 other candidates, 1.8% between them.
See all results
Evelyn, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Bridget VallenceLiberal20,38546.7%-1.8
Lorna DentLabor14,27732.7%-8.1
Andrew HenleyGreens4,0529.3%-0.5
Jeanette DobsonFamily First2,3185.3%New
Jan HealdAnimal Justice1,8194.2%New
Nat De FrancescoIndependent4481%New
Rosalie De FrancescoIndependent3660.8%New

Final two in the count: Bridget Vallence (Liberal) 55.2% · Lorna Dent (Labor) 44.8%. 43,665 formal votes, 2,254 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d