Geelong

Current member: Christine Couzens (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 64.7%35.3% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 55.7%44.3% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 55.7% to the Coalition’s 44.3%, a margin of 5.7 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Christine CouzensLaborSitting member
Emilie FlynnGreens
Brenden GrullIndependent
Andy PobjoyLiberal
Bree VanderpolVictorian Socialists

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 61%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 64.7% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 35.3%, a margin of 14.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Christine Couzens Labor46.4%
James Bennett-Hullin Liberal27.2%
Aleisha Smith Greens15.3%
Madeleine Parker-Hill Family First4.6%
Bob Motta Animal Justice3.3%

2 other candidates, 3.2% between them.

See all results

Geelong, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Christine Couzens	Labor	20,754	46.4%	+4.7
James Bennett-Hullin	Liberal	12,194	27.2%	+5.3
Aleisha Smith	Greens	6,849	15.3%	+6.3
Madeleine Parker-Hill	Family First	2,051	4.6%	New
Bob Motta	Animal Justice	1,465	3.3%	+0.2
Angela Carr	Independent	994	2.2%	New
Stephen Juhasz	Independent	455	1%	New

Final two in the count: Christine Couzens (Labor) 63.8% · James Bennett-Hullin (Liberal) 36.2%. 44,762 formal votes, 1,918 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d