Ovens Valley
- Current member
- Tim McCurdy (Nationals)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 76.8% to Labor’s 23.2%, a margin of 26.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Ben GilbertGreens
- Steve ManningIndependent
- Tim McCurdyNationalsSitting member
- James RouelOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: The Labor–Coalition swing result is arithmetic only. A One Nation challenge has been suggested, but there’s no local evidence to settle who the final two would be.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 67.8% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 32.2%, a margin of 17.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Tim McCurdy Nationals52.1%
- Zuvele Leschen Labor20.7%
- Zoe Kromar Greens9%
- Julian Fidge Liberal Democrats7.4%
- Mark Bugge Freedom4.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim McCurdy | Nationals | 21,057 | 52.1% | +10.7 |
| Zuvele Leschen | Labor | 8,369 | 20.7% | 0.0 |
| Zoe Kromar | Greens | 3,625 | 9% | +4.2 |
| Julian Fidge | Liberal Democrats | 2,995 | 7.4% | New |
| Mark Bugge | Freedom | 1,932 | 4.8% | New |
| Anna Wise | Family First | 1,403 | 3.5% | New |
| Aisha Slater | Animal Justice | 1,009 | 2.5% | New |
Final two in the count: Tim McCurdy (Nationals) 68% · Zuvele Leschen (Labor) 32%. 40,390 formal votes, 2,101 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d