Broadmeadows
- Current member
- Kathleen Matthews-Ward (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 56.5% to the Coalition’s 43.5%, a margin of 6.5 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Sue BoltonIndependent
- Baris DuzovaLiberal
- Candace FeildAnimal Justice
- Ethan KeirsOne Nation
- Kathleen Matthews-WardLaborSitting member
- Maryam NasimGreens
- Matullah Can YolbulanVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Labor against One Nation as the final two hasn’t been confirmed. Neither Labor’s past margin over the Coalition nor statewide polling of Labor against One Nation tells us who would win here.
Betting market
The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 75%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 65.5% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 34.5%, a margin of 15.5 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Kathleen Matthews-Ward Labor45.7%
- Baris Duzova Liberal23.1%
- Joe Aguilus Greens8.4%
- Omar Hassan Victorian Socialists8%
- Bienne Tam Family First4.6%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathleen Matthews-Ward | Labor | 15,899 | 45.7% | -10.8 |
| Baris Duzova | Liberal | 8,044 | 23.1% | +8.1 |
| Joe Aguilus | Greens | 2,908 | 8.4% | +0.4 |
| Omar Hassan | Victorian Socialists | 2,795 | 8% | +3.2 |
| Bienne Tam | Family First | 1,611 | 4.6% | New |
| Mohamad Elmustapha | Independent | 1,316 | 3.8% | New |
| Candace Feild | Animal Justice | 1,030 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Ben Sutter | Reason Party | 815 | 2.3% | New |
| Arie Huybregts | Independent | 362 | 1% | New |
Final two in the count: Kathleen Matthews-Ward (Labor) 65.5% · Baris Duzova (Liberal) 34.5%. 34,780 formal votes, 4,198 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d