Brighton

Current member: James Newbury (Liberal)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 44.9%55.1% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 35.9%64.1% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 64.1% to Labor’s 35.9%, a margin of 14.1 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Ebony BainGreens
Bridget MullahyLabor
James NewburyLiberalSitting member
Jessica SmithVictorian Socialists

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 83%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 55.1% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 44.9%, a margin of 5.1 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

James Newbury Liberal45.6%
Louise Crawford Labor24.7%
Sarah Dekiere Greens13.8%
Felicity Frederico Independent9.1%
Sally Gibson Independent2.3%

4 other candidates, 4.6% between them.

See all results

Brighton, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
James Newbury	Liberal	18,791	45.6%	+0.9
Louise Crawford	Labor	10,164	24.7%	-7.5
Sarah Dekiere	Greens	5,680	13.8%	-1.2
Felicity Frederico	Independent	3,749	9.1%	New
Sally Gibson	Independent	941	2.3%	New
Alicia Walker	Animal Justice	851	2.1%	-2.8
Nick Sciola	Family First	558	1.4%	New
John Tiger Casley	Independent	251	0.6%	New
Allan L. Timms	Independent	211	0.5%	New

Final two in the count: James Newbury (Liberal) 54.2% · Louise Crawford (Labor) 45.8%. 41,196 formal votes, 1,786 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d