Cranbourne
- Current member
- Pauline Richards (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be an exact tie, Labor and the Coalition on 50% each.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Shane ForemanFamily First
- Annalise MercerGreens
- Pauline RichardsLaborSitting member
- Gino TripodiLiberal
- Reem YunisVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: With the swing, this seat is an exact tie at the precision we show. One Nation could also be involved, which makes the final two less certain.
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 42%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast. Little separates the leading contenders: the top two chances are within 5 points.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 59% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 41%, a margin of 9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Pauline Richards Labor46.2%
- Jagdeep Singh Liberal27.5%
- Kiran Vempati Greens5.6%
- Bradley Harvey Family First5.5%
- Chris Norton Democratic Labour5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauline Richards | Labor | 18,853 | 46.2% | -2.6 |
| Jagdeep Singh | Liberal | 11,230 | 27.5% | -6.9 |
| Kiran Vempati | Greens | 2,282 | 5.6% | +1.6 |
| Bradley Harvey | Family First | 2,249 | 5.5% | New |
| Chris Norton | Democratic Labour | 2,044 | 5% | +3.4 |
| Gerardine Frances Hansen | Freedom | 1,790 | 4.4% | New |
| Peter Bernard Philpott | Justice | 1,126 | 2.8% | -1.9 |
| Gwynne Brennan | Animal Justice | 1,006 | 2.5% | New |
| Ravi Ragupathy | Independent | 242 | 0.6% | New |
Final two in the count: Pauline Richards (Labor) 59% · Jagdeep Singh (Liberal) 41%. 40,822 formal votes, 3,234 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d