Clarinda

Current member: Meng Heang Tak (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 60.2%39.8% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 51.2%48.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 51.2% to the Coalition’s 48.8%, a margin of 1.2 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Gavin BainOne Nation
Conor Boyd-EedleGreens
Kit MessageVictorian Socialists
John PaganisLiberal
Meng Heang TakLaborSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 47%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 60.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 39.8%, a margin of 10.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Meng Heang Tak Labor45.5%
Anthony Richardson Liberal28.6%
Jessamine Moffett Greens8%
Caroline White Independent7.8%
Karen Hastings Family First3%

3 other candidates, 7.3% between them.

See all results

Clarinda, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Meng Heang Tak	Labor	18,441	45.5%	-8.6
Anthony Richardson	Liberal	11,593	28.6%	+0.4
Jessamine Moffett	Greens	3,227	8%	+0.7
Caroline White	Independent	3,167	7.8%	New
Karen Hastings	Family First	1,215	3%	New
Hung Vo	Independent	1,122	2.8%	New
Sue Litchfield	Animal Justice	1,005	2.5%	+0.3
Steve Wolfe	Freedom	794	2%	New

Final two in the count: Meng Heang Tak (Labor) 60.4% · Anthony Richardson (Liberal) 39.6%. 40,564 formal votes, 2,477 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d