Eureka
- Current member
- Michaela Settle (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51.8% to Labor’s 48.2%, a margin of 1.8 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Paul BallingerOne Nation
- Ian HarknessFamily First
- Sam McCollGreens
- Wendy MorrisonAnimal Justice
- Emma MuirLiberal
- Andy RavenVictorian Socialists
- Michaela SettleLaborSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. Until it’s clear who stays in the count after preferences, the 7.2-point Labor–Coalition margin last time can’t be turned into a result. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 34%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast. Little separates the leading contenders: the top two chances are within 5 points.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes One Nation the favourite. The swing comparison assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The market suggests One Nation could be one of them instead.
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Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 57.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42.8%, a margin of 7.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Michaela Settle Labor41%
- Paul Tatchell Liberal31.6%
- Sam McColl Greens10.8%
- Tabitha Rickard Democratic Labour4%
- Wendy Morrison Animal Justice3.4%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela Settle | Labor | 18,531 | 41% | -3.4 |
| Paul Tatchell | Liberal | 14,320 | 31.6% | +0.8 |
| Sam McColl | Greens | 4,887 | 10.8% | +1.8 |
| Tabitha Rickard | Democratic Labour | 1,821 | 4% | +3.6 |
| Wendy Morrison | Animal Justice | 1,519 | 3.4% | -0.5 |
| Adrian Garcia | Family First | 1,233 | 2.7% | New |
| Nicola Reid | Independent | 1,083 | 2.4% | New |
| Anthony Joseph Giampaolo | Freedom | 967 | 2.1% | New |
| Michael Ray | Independent | 666 | 1.5% | New |
| Mark William Banwell | Independent | 220 | 0.5% | New |
Final two in the count: Michaela Settle (Labor) 56.9% · Paul Tatchell (Liberal) 43.1%. 45,247 formal votes, 3,297 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d