Mildura
- Current member
- Jade Benham (Nationals)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
In 2022 the final two here were the Nationals and an independent. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Announced candidates
- Jade BenhamNationalsSitting member
- Katie ClementsGreens
- Guy CooperOne Nation
- Ali CupperIndependent
- Renee NayefVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Independent
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Last time the Nationals beat an independent by 1.2 points, and One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. A Labor–Coalition swing doesn’t apply here. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 51.2% of the vote between the final two, to an independent’s 48.8%, a margin of 1.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Ali Cupper Independent33.9%
- Jade Benham Nationals25.9%
- Paul Matheson Liberal19.1%
- Stella Zigouras Labor6.5%
- Glenn Milne Independent4.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Cupper | Independent | 12,913 | 33.9% | +3.0 |
| Jade Benham | Nationals | 9,868 | 25.9% | -11.3 |
| Paul Matheson | Liberal | 7,291 | 19.1% | +15.9 |
| Stella Zigouras | Labor | 2,483 | 6.5% | -11.1 |
| Glenn Milne | Independent | 1,716 | 4.5% | New |
| Sonia Brymer | Independent | 1,080 | 2.8% | New |
| Katie Clements | Greens | 894 | 2.3% | -1.4 |
| Felicity Sharpe | Democratic Labour | 586 | 1.5% | +1.5 |
| Brad Stratton | Family First | 560 | 1.5% | New |
| Philippe John Brougham | Freedom | 416 | 1.1% | New |
| Angylina Zayn | Animal Justice | 333 | 0.9% | +0.8 |
Final two in the count: Jade Benham (Nationals) 51.3% · Ali Cupper (Independent) 48.7%. 38,140 formal votes, 3,096 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d