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Election explorer

Oakleigh

Current member
Steve Dimopoulos (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 63.5%36.5% Coalition
With the selected swing
Labor 54.5%45.5% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 54.5% to the Coalition’s 45.5%, a margin of 4.5 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Rowdy BugterVictorian Socialists
  • Steve DimopoulosLaborSitting member
  • Hsiang-Han HsiehGreens
  • Martin JungLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 63.5% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 36.5%, a margin of 13.5 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Steve Dimopoulos Labor45%
  • Jim Grivokostopoulos Liberal29.3%
  • Hsiang-Han Hsieh Greens16.6%
  • Dominique Murphy Independent2.5%
  • Loraine Fabb Animal Justice2.3%
3 other candidates, 4.4% between them.
See all results
Oakleigh, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Steve DimopoulosLabor19,77845%-8.5
Jim GrivokostopoulosLiberal12,84829.3%-0.4
Hsiang-Han HsiehGreens7,27816.6%+5.4
Dominique MurphyIndependent1,0842.5%New
Loraine FabbAnimal Justice1,0142.3%+0.4
Edward SokFamily First9042.1%New
Anthony Charles JacobsFreedom7701.8%New
Parashos KioupelisIndependent2340.5%New

Final two in the count: Steve Dimopoulos (Labor) 63.5% · Jim Grivokostopoulos (Liberal) 36.5%. 43,910 formal votes, 2,000 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d