Rowville

Current member: Kim Wells (Liberal)Retiring (announced 14 September 2025)

Kim Wells is retiring; the Liberals’ candidate is Max Williams.

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 46.3%53.7% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 37.3%62.7% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 62.7% to Labor’s 37.3%, a margin of 12.7 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Lars HiemstraVictorian Socialists
Dave MasseyGreens
Muhammad ShahbazLabor
Max WilliamsLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What has changed

Kim Wells is retiring, as announced on 14 September 2025.

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 53.7% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 46.3%, a margin of 3.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Kim Wells Liberal40.6%
Mannie Kaur Verma Labor32.9%
Nicole Seymour Independent12.1%
Angelica Di Camillo Greens7%
Stephen Burgess Family First3.3%

2 other candidates, 4.1% between them.

See all results

Rowville, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Kim Wells	Liberal	17,600	40.6%	-10.3
Mannie Kaur Verma	Labor	14,283	32.9%	-2.9
Nicole Seymour	Independent	5,231	12.1%	New
Angelica Di Camillo	Greens	3,055	7%	-2.5
Stephen Burgess	Family First	1,433	3.3%	New
Peterine Elizabeth Smulders	Freedom	908	2.1%	New
Diane Glenane	Animal Justice	859	2%	New

Final two in the count: Kim Wells (Liberal) 53.7% · Mannie Kaur Verma (Labor) 46.3%. 43,369 formal votes, 2,070 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d