Brunswick
- Current member
- Held by Greens
Our call
Greens favoured
We see the Greens as favourites for now, based on their 13.7-point margin last time and their statewide polling. We haven’t estimated a local swing or their chance of winning.
Our read, recorded 16 October 2026. It’s our assessment, not a calculation.
Announced candidates
- Naomi FarmerVictorian Socialists
- Adam PulfordGreens
- Gabriel StegerLabor
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Greens v Labor
In 2022 the final two here were the Greens and Labor. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Betting market
The market makes the Greens the favourite here, at about 75%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Greens received 63.7% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 36.3%, a margin of 13.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Tim Read Greens43.6%
- Mike Williams Labor28.5%
- Minh Quan Nguyen Liberal10.9%
- Nahui Jimenez Victorian Socialists8.1%
- Shea Evans Reason Party4.4%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Read | Greens | 18,959 | 43.6% | +1.5 |
| Mike Williams | Labor | 12,392 | 28.5% | -9.5 |
| Minh Quan Nguyen | Liberal | 4,723 | 10.9% | +3.0 |
| Nahui Jimenez | Victorian Socialists | 3,506 | 8.1% | New |
| Shea Evans | Reason Party | 1,933 | 4.4% | -0.4 |
| Rachel Lamarche-Beauchesne | Animal Justice | 699 | 1.6% | -0.5 |
| Anthony Helou | Independent | 551 | 1.3% | New |
| Lilian Sabry Shaker | Family First | 529 | 1.2% | New |
| Kenneth Charles Taylor | Independent | 153 | 0.4% | New |
Final two in the count: Tim Read (Greens) 63.5% · Mike Williams (Labor) 36.5%. 43,445 formal votes, 1,733 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d