Bayswater

Current member: Jackson Taylor (Labor)Retiring (announced 23 September 2025)

Jackson Taylor is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Julie Buxton.

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 54.2%45.8% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 45.2%54.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 54.8% to Labor’s 45.2%, a margin of 4.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Julie BuxtonLabor
Gary CoombsFamily First
Alex FergusonVictorian Socialists
Jess KennedyGreens
David KitchenLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What has changed

Jackson Taylor is retiring, as announced on 23 September 2025.

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 68%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 54.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 45.8%, a margin of 4.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Jackson Taylor Labor41.3%
Nick Wakeling Liberal35.6%
Nadia Sirninger Rankin Greens7.4%
Ashley Heap Legalise Cannabis3.9%
Gary Coombes Family First3.3%

4 other candidates, 8.5% between them.

See all results

Bayswater, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Jackson Taylor	Labor	17,609	41.3%	+0.7
Nick Wakeling	Liberal	15,174	35.6%	-12.1
Nadia Sirninger Rankin	Greens	3,151	7.4%	-1.5
Ashley Heap	Legalise Cannabis	1,653	3.9%	New
Gary Coombes	Family First	1,397	3.3%	New
Thomas Dolan	Democratic Labour	948	2.2%	New
Chris Field	Freedom	937	2.2%	New
Chloe Mackallah	Independent	890	2.1%	New
Alyssa Wormald	Animal Justice	840	2%	-0.6

Final two in the count: Jackson Taylor (Labor) 54.1% · Nick Wakeling (Liberal) 45.9%. 42,599 formal votes, 2,512 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d