Ivanhoe

Current member: Anthony Carbines (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 62.8%37.2% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 53.8%46.2% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 53.8% to the Coalition’s 46.2%, a margin of 3.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Anthony CarbinesLaborSitting member
Nina CrawleyGreens
Wayne HutchinsonOne Nation
Michelle KennedyIndependent
Oscar LopezLiberal
Ben MilneVictorian Socialists

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 50%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 62.8% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 37.2%, a margin of 12.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Anthony Carbines Labor42.7%
Bernadette Khoury Liberal31%
Emily Bieber Greens19.2%
Sarah Hayward Family First3%
Sonja Ristevski Animal Justice2.3%

1 other candidate, 1.8% between them.

See all results

Ivanhoe, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Anthony Carbines	Labor	17,333	42.7%	-3.7
Bernadette Khoury	Liberal	12,566	31%	-1.4
Emily Bieber	Greens	7,808	19.2%	+4.5
Sarah Hayward	Family First	1,216	3%	New
Sonja Ristevski	Animal Justice	937	2.3%	New
Craig Langdon	Independent	739	1.8%	New

Final two in the count: Anthony Carbines (Labor) 62.8% · Bernadette Khoury (Liberal) 37.2%. 40,599 formal votes, 1,536 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d