Gippsland South
- Current member
- Danny O'Brien (Nationals), Nationals LeaderStanding again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 74.6% to Labor’s 25.4%, a margin of 24.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Zave EvansGreens
- Lachy McGenniskenVictorian Socialists
- Danny O'BrienNationalsSitting member
- Bianca WilkeOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The Nationals’ past margin over Labor doesn’t show they would hold it against One Nation. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes the Nationals the favourite here, at about 72%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 65.6% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 34.4%, a margin of 15.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Danny O'Brien Nationals53.3%
- Denise Ryan Labor23.4%
- Jay Tiziani-Simpson Greens8.4%
- Clay Esler Independent5.7%
- Angela Newnham Freedom3.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny O'Brien | Nationals | 22,566 | 53.3% | -3.8 |
| Denise Ryan | Labor | 9,920 | 23.4% | -4.8 |
| Jay Tiziani-Simpson | Greens | 3,538 | 8.4% | -0.9 |
| Clay Esler | Independent | 2,414 | 5.7% | New |
| Angela Newnham | Freedom | 1,357 | 3.2% | New |
| Helen Jeges | Animal Justice | 1,350 | 3.2% | New |
| Paul Furlong | Family First | 1,218 | 2.9% | New |
Final two in the count: Danny O'Brien (Nationals) 65.3% · Denise Ryan (Labor) 34.8%. 42,363 formal votes, 2,354 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d