Shepparton
- Current member
- Kim O'Keeffe (Nationals)Retiring (announced 21 July 2026)
Kim O'Keeffe is retiring; the Nationals’ candidate is Shane Sali.
Our call
Not settled
In 2022 the final two here were the Nationals and an independent. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Announced candidates
- Phillip BryantOne Nation
- Louise CostaIndependent
- Cayla FinLabor
- Shane SaliNationals
- Grace VerneyGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Independent
What has changed
- Kim O'Keeffe is retiring, as announced on 21 July 2026.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Last time the Nationals beat an independent by 6.8 points. We don’t know the independent’s current strength or whether the same candidate is standing. Open means we lack evidence, not that it’s a 50–50 race.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 56.8% of the vote between the final two, to an independent’s 43.2%, a margin of 6.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Kim O'Keeffe Nationals32.1%
- Suzanna Sheed Independent29.4%
- Cheryl Hammer Liberal20.6%
- Liam Cowan Labor8%
- Ian Christoe Greens2.6%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim O'Keeffe | Nationals | 13,242 | 32.1% | +19.0 |
| Suzanna Sheed | Independent | 12,146 | 29.4% | -9.0 |
| Cheryl Hammer | Liberal | 8,491 | 20.6% | -6.0 |
| Liam Cowan | Labor | 3,285 | 8% | -3.6 |
| Ian Christoe | Greens | 1,056 | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| Sueie McGrath | Democratic Labour | 882 | 2.1% | New |
| Alison White | Family First | 877 | 2.1% | New |
| Diane M. Teasdale | Freedom | 807 | 2% | New |
| Katherine Taylor | Animal Justice | 515 | 1.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Kim O'Keeffe (Nationals) 56.8% · Suzanna Sheed (Independent) 43.2%. 41,301 formal votes, 2,663 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d