Lowan
- Current member
- Emma Kealy (Nationals)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 80.6% to Labor’s 19.4%, a margin of 30.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Lee Ann ElmsFamily First
- Emma KealyNationalsSitting member
- Andrew PartridgeOne Nation
- Sue PavlovichLabor
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: The Nationals’ large past margin over Labor doesn’t show how they would fare against One Nation. We don’t have current first-preference votes or preference flows.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 71.6% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 28.4%, a margin of 21.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Emma Kealy Nationals58.9%
- Mick Monaghan Labor19.8%
- Richard Lane Greens5.9%
- Amanda Mead Independent5.5%
- Richard Etherton Angry Victorians3.9%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Kealy | Nationals | 25,482 | 58.9% | -2.1 |
| Mick Monaghan | Labor | 8,554 | 19.8% | -1.5 |
| Richard Lane | Greens | 2,575 | 5.9% | +0.6 |
| Amanda Mead | Independent | 2,384 | 5.5% | New |
| Richard Etherton | Angry Victorians | 1,710 | 3.9% | New |
| Robert Coleman | Family First | 1,573 | 3.6% | New |
| Tamasin Ramsay | Animal Justice | 1,019 | 2.4% | +2.2 |
Final two in the count: Emma Kealy (Nationals) 71.6% · Mick Monaghan (Labor) 28.4%. 43,297 formal votes, 2,612 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d