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Election explorer

Box Hill

Current member
Paul Hamer (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 57.2%42.8% Coalition
With the selected swing
Labor 48.2%51.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 51.8% to Labor’s 48.2%, a margin of 1.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • Saravina AfajVictorian Socialists
  • Jamie BakerOne Nation
  • Heena Sinha CheungIndependent
  • Peter FaggFamily First
  • Paul HamerLaborSitting member
  • Sally HouguetLiberal
  • Aaron QinGreens

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 57%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 57.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 42.8%, a margin of 7.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • Paul Hamer Labor41.3%
  • Nicole Ta-Ei Werner Liberal35.2%
  • Joanne Shan Greens14.1%
  • Paul Dean Democratic Labour2.4%
  • Sebastian Folloni Animal Justice1.9%
4 other candidates, 5% between them.
See all results
Box Hill, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
Paul HamerLabor18,34041.3%+0.5
Nicole Ta-Ei WernerLiberal15,59335.2%-8.9
Joanne ShanGreens6,26714.1%+0.7
Paul DeanDemocratic Labour1,0832.4%New
Sebastian FolloniAnimal Justice8241.9%+1.5
Gary OngFamily First8091.8%New
Alicia RieraFreedom5411.2%New
Wayne TsengIndependent4641%New
Cameron ListonIndependent4361%New

Final two in the count: Paul Hamer (Labor) 56.8% · Nicole Ta-Ei Werner (Liberal) 43.2%. 44,357 formal votes, 1,635 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d