Pakenham
- Current member
- Emma Vulin (Labor)Retiring
Emma Vulin is retiring; Labor’s candidate is Alessandra Soliven.
Swing comparison
Coalition advantage
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 58.6% to Labor’s 41.4%, a margin of 8.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Radmila DysonLiberal
- Raymond FrenchIndependent
- Stephanie GriggVictorian Socialists
- Warren PickeringOne Nation
- Alessandra SolivenLabor
- Nasser YawariGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Coalition
What has changed
- Emma Vulin is retiring.
What remains uncertain
- A party has been reported as targeting this seat. That's a sign to watch it, not a result.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Betting market
The market makes One Nation the favourite here, at about 55%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
The market and the swing comparison point different ways: with the swing, the Coalition would lead; the market makes One Nation the favourite. The swing comparison assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. The market suggests One Nation could be one of them instead.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 50.4% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 49.6%, a margin of 0.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Emma Vulin Labor33.8%
- David Farrelly Liberal32.4%
- Brett Owen Independent8.1%
- Michelle Maibaum Greens6.6%
- Elissa Smith Legalise Cannabis5.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Vulin | Labor | 13,151 | 33.8% | -11.1 |
| David Farrelly | Liberal | 12,605 | 32.4% | -9.7 |
| Brett Owen | Independent | 3,157 | 8.1% | New |
| Michelle Maibaum | Greens | 2,571 | 6.6% | -0.5 |
| Elissa Smith | Legalise Cannabis | 2,010 | 5.2% | New |
| Angela Siladji | One Nation | 1,321 | 3.4% | New |
| Christopher Gore | Family First | 1,218 | 3.1% | New |
| Hannah Pledger-Firth | Animal Justice | 978 | 2.5% | New |
| Sammi Clarke | Freedom | 956 | 2.5% | New |
| Sarasadat Sarkeshik | Democratic Labour | 666 | 1.7% | +0.6 |
| Rajvir Singh Sagoo | Independent | 234 | 0.6% | New |
Final two in the count: Emma Vulin (Labor) 50.4% · David Farrelly (Liberal) 49.6%. 38,867 formal votes, 3,089 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d