Northcote
- Current member
- Kat Theophanous (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Greens lean
We lean towards the Greens, based on Labor’s 0.2-point margin over them last time and the Greens’ stronger statewide polling. It’s our judgement: there’s no seat poll or estimated swing.
Our read, recorded 16 October 2026. It’s our assessment, not a calculation. (pollbludger.net, pollbludger.net)
Announced candidates
- Lynda AwadLiberal
- Campbell GomeGreens
- Kath LarkinVictorian Socialists
- Jim PenmanLibertarian
- Kat TheophanousLaborSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor v Greens
In 2022 the final two here were Labor and the Greens. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Betting market
The market makes the Greens the favourite here, at about 54%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 50.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Greens’ 49.8%, a margin of 0.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Kat Theophanous Labor40.6%
- Campbell Gome Greens30%
- Stewart Todhunter Liberal12.2%
- Kath Larkin Victorian Socialists6.5%
- April Clarke Reason Party3.6%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kat Theophanous | Labor | 17,303 | 40.6% | -1.1 |
| Campbell Gome | Greens | 12,797 | 30% | -9.5 |
| Stewart Todhunter | Liberal | 5,205 | 12.2% | +1.5 |
| Kath Larkin | Victorian Socialists | 2,776 | 6.5% | New |
| April Clarke | Reason Party | 1,539 | 3.6% | +0.2 |
| Tim Oseckas | Animal Justice | 757 | 1.8% | -0.6 |
| Anastacia Ntouni | Freedom | 729 | 1.7% | New |
| Anthony Cave | Liberal Democrats | 530 | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Adrian Whitehead | Independent | 518 | 1.2% | New |
| Kathrine Ashton | Family First | 408 | 1% | New |
| Ashish Verma | Independent | 80 | 0.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Kat Theophanous (Labor) 50.2% · Campbell Gome (Greens) 49.8%. 42,642 formal votes, 2,445 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d