Gippsland East
- Current member
- Tim Bull (Nationals)Retiring (announced 19 May 2026)
Tim Bull is retiring; the Nationals’ candidate is Gemma Rendell.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: the Nationals, One Nation and Labor. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 83.6% to Labor’s 16.4%, a margin of 33.6 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Amy EspesethVictorian Socialists
- Steve GoodmanOne Nation
- Ash MunroGreens
- Gemma RendellNationals
- Sonny StephensLabor
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Nationals / One Nation / Labor; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- Tim Bull is retiring, as announced on 19 May 2026.
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. The 24.6-point margin last time was against Labor; there’s no measured margin against One Nation. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
The market makes the Nationals the favourite here, at about 78%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Nationals received 74.6% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 25.4%, a margin of 24.6 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Tim Bull Nationals63.3%
- Stephen Richardson Labor17%
- Nissa Ling Greens6.4%
- Ricky Muir Shooters5.8%
- Ed Barnes Freedom3.2%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Bull | Nationals | 26,737 | 63.3% | +6.6 |
| Stephen Richardson | Labor | 7,191 | 17% | -4.7 |
| Nissa Ling | Greens | 2,691 | 6.4% | +0.2 |
| Ricky Muir | Shooters | 2,460 | 5.8% | New |
| Ed Barnes | Freedom | 1,340 | 3.2% | New |
| Carl John Fechner | Family First | 1,068 | 2.5% | New |
| Sally Court | Animal Justice | 725 | 1.7% | New |
Final two in the count: Tim Bull (Nationals) 73.9% · Stephen Richardson (Labor) 26.1%. 42,212 formal votes, 1,992 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d