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Election explorer

Glen Waverley

Current member
John Mullahy (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison
Labor 53.3%46.7% Coalition
With the selected swing
Labor 44.3%55.7% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 55.7% to Labor’s 44.3%, a margin of 5.7 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

  • John MullahyLaborSitting member
  • Nicholas SiowVictorian Socialists
  • Jacky SunLiberal
  • Toyo WhiteGreens

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

  • The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 63%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 53.3% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 46.7%, a margin of 3.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

  • John Mullahy Labor40.6%
  • Neil Angus Liberal40.2%
  • Steph Partridge Greens9.6%
  • Scott Marsh Democratic Labour4.2%
  • Kristeen Huisman Family First2.2%
2 other candidates, 3.3% between them.
See all results
Glen Waverley, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
CandidatePartyVotesShareChange since 2018
John MullahyLabor18,15340.6%-1.3
Neil AngusLiberal17,94140.2%-8.1
Steph PartridgeGreens4,2799.6%+1.2
Scott MarshDemocratic Labour1,8564.2%+4.1
Kristeen HuismanFamily First9722.2%New
Maddy HanceAnimal Justice8021.8%New
Joyce Maree HarrisFreedom6641.5%New

Final two in the count: John Mullahy (Labor) 53.3% · Neil Angus (Liberal) 46.7%. 44,667 formal votes, 1,529 informal. (pollbludger.net)

Updated Version details
Published
19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to
16 October 2026
Model
Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version
rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d