Melbourne
- Current member
- Ellen Sandell (Greens)Standing again
Our call
Greens favoured
We see the Greens as favourites for now, based on their 10.2-point margin last time and their statewide polling. We haven’t allowed for candidates or local factors.
Our read, recorded 16 October 2026. It’s our assessment, not a calculation.
Announced candidates
- Rafael CamilloLiberal
- Davydd GriffithsLabor
- Naomi JonesAnimal Justice
- Jordan van den LambVictorian Socialists
- Ellen SandellGreensSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Greens v Labor
In 2022 the final two here were the Greens and Labor. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Greens received 60.2% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 39.8%, a margin of 10.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Ellen Sandell Greens37.3%
- Rebecca Thistleton Labor30.7%
- George Palackalody Liberal17.7%
- Colleen Bolger Victorian Socialists5.5%
- Nicola Foxworthy Reason Party3.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellen Sandell | Greens | 15,855 | 37.3% | -1.5 |
| Rebecca Thistleton | Labor | 13,033 | 30.7% | -5.3 |
| George Palackalody | Liberal | 7,522 | 17.7% | +0.7 |
| Colleen Bolger | Victorian Socialists | 2,323 | 5.5% | New |
| Nicola Foxworthy | Reason Party | 1,601 | 3.8% | 0.0 |
| Rabin Bangaar | Animal Justice | 701 | 1.6% | -0.3 |
| Michael Janson | Family First | 535 | 1.3% | New |
| Steven J. Smith | Freedom | 521 | 1.2% | New |
| Laylah Al-Saimary | Independent | 428 | 1% | New |
Final two in the count: Ellen Sandell (Greens) 60.2% · Rebecca Thistleton (Labor) 39.8%. 42,519 formal votes, 1,485 informal. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d