Hawthorn
- Current member
- John Pesutto (Liberal)Standing again
Swing comparison
Coalition advantage
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 60.7% to Labor’s 39.3%, a margin of 10.7 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Clive CrosbyLabor
- Tess McEnearneyVictorian Socialists
- John PesuttoLiberalSitting member
- Kylie RochaGreens
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Labor
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: In 2022 the final two were the Liberals and Labor, so the swing comparison works for that pair. Whether an independent is competitive now still needs checking. (vec.vic.gov.au)
Betting market
The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 73%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Liberals received 51.7% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 48.3%, a margin of 1.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- John Pesutto Liberal42.3%
- John Kennedy Labor22.1%
- Melissa Lowe Independent20%
- Nick Savage Greens11.1%
- Faith Fuhrer Animal Justice1.5%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 18,728 | 42.3% | -1.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 9,799 | 22.1% | -10.9 |
| Melissa Lowe | Independent | 8,851 | 20% | New |
| Nick Savage | Greens | 4,927 | 11.1% | -6.3 |
| Faith Fuhrer | Animal Justice | 660 | 1.5% | -0.7 |
| Richard Peppard | Liberal Democrats | 583 | 1.3% | New |
| Ken Triantafillis | Family First | 408 | 0.9% | New |
| Stratton Bell | Democratic Labour | 354 | 0.8% | New |
Final two in the count: John Pesutto (Liberal) 51.5% · Melissa Lowe (Independent) 48.5%. 44,310 formal votes, 1,178 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d