Lara
- Current member
- Ella George (Labor)Standing again
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 56.9% to the Coalition’s 43.1%, a margin of 6.9 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Ella GeorgeLaborSitting member
- Sarah HathwayIndependent
- Oliver RandallVictorian Socialists
- Theresa SlaterGreens
- Stephen SpyrosOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: One Nation is reported to be targeting the seat. Labor’s 15.9-point margin over the Coalition doesn’t measure how safe it is against One Nation. (pollbludger.net)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
Labor received 65.9% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 34.1%, a margin of 15.9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Ella George Labor49.7%
- Ralph Krein Liberal21.4%
- Courtney Gardner Greens11.3%
- Steve Rankine Family First4.5%
- Max Payne Liberal Democrats4.3%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella George | Labor | 19,635 | 49.7% | -8.2 |
| Ralph Krein | Liberal | 8,460 | 21.4% | -2.7 |
| Courtney Gardner | Greens | 4,473 | 11.3% | +3.8 |
| Steve Rankine | Family First | 1,775 | 4.5% | New |
| Max Payne | Liberal Democrats | 1,688 | 4.3% | New |
| Peter Kelly | Animal Justice | 1,502 | 3.8% | -3.1 |
| Sarah Hathway | Independent | 1,050 | 2.7% | New |
| Ash Taylor | Angry Victorians | 938 | 2.4% | New |
Final two in the count: Ella George (Labor) 66.2% · Ralph Krein (Liberal) 33.8%. 39,521 formal votes, 2,668 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d