Werribee
- Current member
- John Lister (Labor)Standing again
Labor kept Werribee at the 2025 by-election, with 50.82% of the vote between the final two.
Our call
Not settled
Three parties could make the final two here: Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Until it's clear which two, a swing between Labor and the Coalition can't tell us who would win.
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat. It starts from the 2022 result, not the 2025 by-election.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 51.9% to the Coalition’s 48.1%, a margin of 1.9 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Reece ClarkLiberal
- Matthew EmersonFamily First
- Paul HopperWest Party
- Tushar KumarGreens
- John ListerLaborSitting member
- Sue MunroVictorian Socialists
- Paul PaterasOne Nation
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Labor / Coalition / One Nation; not yet clear which two
What has changed
- 2025 by-election: John Lister (Labor) won. Final two: Labor 50.82% · Liberal 49.18%. First preferences: Labor 28.89%. (vec.vic.gov.au, pollbludger.net)
What remains uncertain
- It isn’t yet clear which two candidates will reach the final count.
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: Labor held on narrowly at the 2025 by-election, so its 10.9-point margin from 2022 overstates its strength now. Applying the full swing on top of the by-election result would count it twice. (vec.vic.gov.au)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2025 by-election
John Lister won. Labor received 50.82% of the vote between the final two, to the Liberals’ 49.18%. (vec.vic.gov.au, pollbludger.net)
The swing comparison above still starts from the 2022 result, shown next.
The 2022 general election
Labor received 60.9% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 39.1%, a margin of 10.9 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Tim Pallas Labor45.4%
- Mia Shaw Liberal25.3%
- Jack Boddeke Greens6.8%
- Paul Hopper Independent5.9%
- Sue Munro Victorian Socialists3.6%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 17,512 | 45.4% | -0.7 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 9,779 | 25.3% | +8.6 |
| Jack Boddeke | Greens | 2,613 | 6.8% | +0.3 |
| Paul Hopper | Independent | 2,278 | 5.9% | New |
| Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 1,391 | 3.6% | New |
| Matthew Emerson | Family First | 964 | 2.5% | New |
| Kathryn Breakwell | Democratic Labour | 767 | 2% | -1.1 |
| Josh Segrave | Animal Justice | 730 | 1.9% | New |
| Patricia Anne Wicks | Justice | 709 | 1.8% | New |
| Mark Strother | Freedom | 663 | 1.7% | New |
| Trevor Russell Collins | Transport Matters | 360 | 0.9% | New |
| Prashant Tandon | New Democrats | 319 | 0.8% | New |
| Karen Hogan | Health Australia | 260 | 0.7% | New |
| Patrizia Barcatta | Independent | 213 | 0.6% | New |
| Heni Cazlynn Kwan | Independent | 45 | 0.1% | New |
Final two in the count: Tim Pallas (Labor) 60.5% · Mia Shaw (Liberal) 39.5%. 38,603 formal votes, 4,156 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d