Niddrie

Current member: Ben Carroll (Labor), PremierStanding again

Swing comparison

Coalition lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 56.7%43.3% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 47.7%52.3% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 52.3% to Labor’s 47.7%, a margin of 2.3 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Samantha ByrneLiberal
Ben CarrollLaborSitting member
Elisabetta CelataWest Party
Salomae HaselgroveAnimal Justice
Brendan LawsVictorian Socialists
Lana NguyenGreens

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 45%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast. Little separates the leading contenders: the top two chances are within 5 points.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 56.7% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 43.3%, a margin of 6.7 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Ben Carroll Labor44%
Alan Youhana Liberal34%
Declan McGinness Greens7.4%
Frank Maugeri Freedom4.5%
Holly Kruse Democratic Labour2.8%

4 other candidates, 7.4% between them.

See all results

Niddrie, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Ben Carroll	Labor	18,567	44%	-10.9
Alan Youhana	Liberal	14,344	34%	-0.4
Declan McGinness	Greens	3,117	7.4%	+0.5
Frank Maugeri	Freedom	1,899	4.5%	New
Holly Kruse	Democratic Labour	1,172	2.8%	New
Joanne Garcia	Family First	1,096	2.6%	New
Brad Reich	Victorian Socialists	966	2.3%	New
Shannon Meilak	Animal Justice	812	1.9%	-1.8
Georgia Grammenos	New Democrats	269	0.6%	New

Final two in the count: Ben Carroll (Labor) 57.1% · Alan Youhana (Liberal) 42.9%. 42,242 formal votes, 2,763 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d