Kew
- Current member
- Jess Wilson (Liberal), Opposition LeaderStanding again
Swing comparison
Coalition advantage
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 63% to Labor’s 37%, a margin of 13 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.
Announced candidates
- Jackie CarterGreens
- Samantha LincolneVictorian Socialists
- Ann SeeleyFamily First
- David SunLabor
- Sophie TorneyIndependent
- Jess WilsonLiberalSitting member
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Coalition v Labor
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Our interpretation
- As at 13 October 2026: In 2022 the final two were the Liberals and Labor. The swing comparison holds only for that pair and doesn’t rule out an independent challenge. (vec.vic.gov.au)
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2022 general election
The Liberals received 54% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 46%, a margin of 4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Jess Wilson Liberal44.3%
- Lucy Skelton Labor22.7%
- Sophie Torney Independent21.1%
- Jackie Carter Greens8.3%
- Ann Seeley Family First1.7%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Wilson | Liberal | 19,321 | 44.3% | -5.1 |
| Lucy Skelton | Labor | 9,896 | 22.7% | -8.8 |
| Sophie Torney | Independent | 9,200 | 21.1% | New |
| Jackie Carter | Greens | 3,612 | 8.3% | -6.9 |
| Ann Seeley | Family First | 751 | 1.7% | New |
| Ruby Schofield | Animal Justice | 507 | 1.2% | -0.9 |
| Finlay Davis | Independent | 158 | 0.4% | New |
| Kym Sullivan | Independent | 147 | 0.3% | New |
Final two in the count: Jess Wilson (Liberal) 53.7% · Sophie Torney (Independent) 46.3%. 43,592 formal votes, 1,367 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d