Carrum

Current member: Sonya Kilkenny (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 59.8%40.2% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 50.8%49.2% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 50.8% to the Coalition’s 49.2%, a margin of 0.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Reema AbabnehVictorian Socialists
Sonya KilkennyLaborSitting member
Joshua MathewsOne Nation
Carolyn MooreAnimal Justice
Zoe PegrumGreens
Jeff ShelleyLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 42%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 59.8% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 40.2%, a margin of 9.8 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Sonya Kilkenny Labor49.9%
Bec Buchanan Liberal30.3%
Jayde Lillico Greens7.6%
Georgia Erevnidis Freedom4%
Jeremy Cameron Family First3.1%

2 other candidates, 5.1% between them.

See all results

Carrum, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Sonya Kilkenny	Labor	21,586	49.9%	-3.1
Bec Buchanan	Liberal	13,141	30.3%	-2.4
Jayde Lillico	Greens	3,282	7.6%	+2.1
Georgia Erevnidis	Freedom	1,750	4%	New
Jeremy Cameron	Family First	1,354	3.1%	New
Taylor MacGregor Owen	Animal Justice	1,201	2.8%	New
Damian Willis	Independent	986	2.3%	New

Final two in the count: Sonya Kilkenny (Labor) 59.9% · Bec Buchanan (Liberal) 40.1%. 43,300 formal votes, 2,169 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d