Ashwood

Current member: Matt Fregon (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Coalition lean

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 56.2%43.8% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 47.2%52.8% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 52.8% to Labor’s 47.2%, a margin of 2.8 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Jacob van der EyndenVictorian Socialists
Matt FregonLaborSitting member
Hitendra JoshiIndependent
Tim RandallGreens
Theo ZographosLiberal

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Liberals the favourite here, at about 61%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 56.2% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 43.8%, a margin of 6.2 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Matt Fregon Labor40.3%
Asher Judah Liberal37.2%
Peter Morgan Greens14.8%
Milton Griffiths Animal Justice2%
Keith Geyer Family First1.9%

3 other candidates, 3.9% between them.

See all results

Ashwood, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Matt Fregon	Labor	18,014	40.3%	-0.2
Asher Judah	Liberal	16,618	37.2%	-6.9
Peter Morgan	Greens	6,612	14.8%	+2.7
Milton Griffiths	Animal Justice	880	2%	+0.5
Keith Geyer	Family First	847	1.9%	New
Lynnette Saloumi	Independent	704	1.6%	New
Norman F. Baker	Freedom	568	1.3%	New
Michael Doyle	Independent	467	1%	New

Final two in the count: Matt Fregon (Labor) 56.5% · Asher Judah (Liberal) 43.5%. 44,710 formal votes, 1,565 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d