Warrandyte

Current member: Nicole Werner (Liberal)Standing again

Nicole Werner (Liberal) won the 2023 by-election, keeping the seat for the Liberals.

Swing comparison

Coalition advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat. It starts from the 2022 result, not the 2023 by-election.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 45.7%54.3% Liberal

With the selected swing

Labor 36.7%63.3% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 63.3% to Labor’s 36.7%, a margin of 13.3 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Mark BurnsideOne Nation
John StanleyVictorian Socialists
Nicole WernerLiberalSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Coalition v Labor

What has changed

2023 by-election: Nicole Werner (Liberal) won. (pollbludger.net)

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2023 by-election

Nicole Werner (Liberal) won. Its vote figures aren’t in our data yet. (pollbludger.net)

The swing comparison above still starts from the 2022 result, shown next.

The 2022 general election

The Liberals received 54.3% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 45.7%, a margin of 4.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Ryan Smith Liberal47.4%
Naomi Oakley Labor33.2%
Deepak Joshi Greens11.7%
Richard Vernay Family First4%
Nicola Rae Animal Justice2.3%

1 other candidate, 1.5% between them.

See all results

Warrandyte, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Ryan Smith	Liberal	21,344	47.4%	-2.8
Naomi Oakley	Labor	14,946	33.2%	-2.4
Deepak Joshi	Greens	5,283	11.7%	+1.2
Richard Vernay	Family First	1,823	4%	New
Nicola Rae	Animal Justice	1,020	2.3%	-1.6
Cynthia Pilli	Independent	659	1.5%	New

Final two in the count: Ryan Smith (Liberal) 54.2% · Naomi Oakley (Labor) 45.9%. 45,075 formal votes, 1,582 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d