Dandenong

Current member: Gabrielle Williams (Labor)Standing again

Swing comparison

Labor advantage

Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat.

2022 result used for this comparison

Labor 68.3%31.7% Coalition

With the selected swing

Labor 59.3%40.7% Coalition

With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be Labor 59.3% to the Coalition’s 40.7%, a margin of 9.3 points.

This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here.

Announced candidates

Catherine D'ArcyGreens
Jack McMahonVictorian Socialists
Gabrielle WilliamsLaborSitting member
Glenda WrightOne Nation

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Labor v Coalition

What remains uncertain

The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes Labor the favourite here, at about 74%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Labor received 68.3% of the vote between the final two, to the Coalition’s 31.7%, a margin of 18.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Gabrielle Williams Labor54.9%
Karen Broadley Liberal21.5%
Matthew Kirwan Greens8.1%
Audrey Harmse Family First6.9%
Anthony Levchenko Freedom3.7%

2 other candidates, 4.9% between them.

See all results

Dandenong, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Gabrielle Williams	Labor	21,677	54.9%	-9.2
Karen Broadley	Liberal	8,475	21.5%	-1.5
Matthew Kirwan	Greens	3,215	8.1%	+1.2
Audrey Harmse	Family First	2,719	6.9%	New
Anthony Levchenko	Freedom	1,478	3.7%	New
Andrew Klop	Animal Justice	982	2.5%	+2.0
Tham Turner	Liberal Democrats	961	2.4%	New

Final two in the count: Gabrielle Williams (Labor) 69.1% · Karen Broadley (Liberal) 30.9%. 39,507 formal votes, 3,188 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d