Richmond

Current member: Gabrielle de Vietri (Greens)Standing again

Our call

Greens favoured

LaborGreens

We see the Greens as favourites for now, based on their 7.3-point margin last time and their statewide polling. We haven’t estimated a local swing or their chance of winning.

Our read, recorded 16 October 2026. It’s our assessment, not a calculation.

Announced candidates

Charles AponsoLiberal
Chris DiteVictorian Socialists
Sarah McKenzieLabor
Harrison RindfleischOne Nation
Gabrielle de VietriGreensSitting member

Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.

What to watch

The likely final two (our assessment)

Greens v Labor

In 2022 the final two here were the Greens and Labor. Our swing comparison only covers seats fought between Labor and the Coalition, so it doesn’t apply here.

Betting market

Sportsbet's implied chances, 16 October 2026

The market makes the Greens the favourite here, at about 65%. "Favourite" means the highest chance in the odds, not our forecast.

Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Last election results

The 2022 general election

Final result, after preferences

Labor 42.7%57.3% Greens

The Greens received 57.3% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 42.7%, a margin of 7.3 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)

First preferences, 2022

Gabrielle De Vietri Greens34.7%
Lauren O'Dwyer Labor32.8%
Lucas Moon Liberal18.8%
Jeremy Cowen Reason Party4.6%
Roz Ward Victorian Socialists4.6%

3 other candidates, 4.7% between them.

See all results

Richmond, 2022: first-preference votes by candidate
Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Change since 2018
Gabrielle De Vietri	Greens	13,771	34.7%	+1.2
Lauren O'Dwyer	Labor	13,037	32.8%	-11.5
Lucas Moon	Liberal	7,456	18.8%	+18.5
Jeremy Cowen	Reason Party	1,830	4.6%	-1.9
Roz Ward	Victorian Socialists	1,828	4.6%	New
Lis Viggers	Animal Justice	934	2.4%	-0.5
Markus Freiverts	Family First	458	1.2%	New
Meca Ho	Independent	417	1.1%	New

Final two in the count: Gabrielle De Vietri (Greens) 57.2% · Lauren O'Dwyer (Labor) 42.8%. 39,731 formal votes, 1,381 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)

Updated 19 October 2026Version details

Published: 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
Data up to: 16 October 2026
Model: Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
Version: rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d