Nepean
- Current member
- Anthony Marsh (Liberal)Standing again
The Liberals kept Nepean at the 2026 by-election, with 63.2% of the vote between the final two.
Our call
Liberal favoured
We see the Liberals as favourites, based on the May 2026 by-election result shown below. Those figures replace the election-night count and aren’t a Labor–Liberal two-party result.
Our read, recorded 16 October 2026. It’s our assessment, not a calculation. (antonygreen.com.au)
See the two-party swing comparison
Our published comparison is a 9-point swing to the Coalition: a chosen what-if, not a prediction for this seat. It starts from the 2022 result, not the 2026 by-election.
With a 9-point swing to the Coalition (a shift in vote share), it would be the Coalition 65.4% to Labor’s 34.6%, a margin of 15.4 points.
This assumes Labor and the Coalition are the final two here. An independent and One Nation could reach the final count instead. Here that assumption is less safe, so the result applies only if Labor and the Coalition are the final two.
Announced candidates
- Sianan HealyGreens
- Darren HercusOne Nation
- Anthony MarshLiberalSitting member
- Seth WillcocksVictorian Socialists
Source: Poll Bludger. Official ballot after nominations close on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The likely final two (our assessment)
Liberal / Independent / One Nation / Labor
What has changed
- 2026 by-election: The Liberals won. Final two: Liberal 63.2% · Independent 36.8%. First preferences: One Nation 24.5%. (antonygreen.com.au)
What remains uncertain
- The swing comparison leaves out the candidates, local issues and any poll of this seat.
Betting market
Sportsbet listed no market for this seat on 16 October 2026.
Gambling help: 1800 858 858 or gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Last election results
The 2026 by-election
The Liberals received 63.2% of the vote between the final two, to an independent’s 36.8%. (antonygreen.com.au)
The swing comparison above still starts from the 2022 result, shown next.
The 2022 general election
The Liberals received 56.4% of the vote between the final two, to Labor’s 43.6%, a margin of 6.4 points (the winning share above 50%). (pollbludger.net)
First preferences, 2022
- Sam Groth Liberal48.1%
- Chris Brayne Labor32.6%
- Esther Gleixner Greens8.8%
- Hank Leine Freedom2.4%
- Pamela Engelander Animal Justice1.8%
See all results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Change since 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Groth | Liberal | 19,614 | 48.1% | +4.0 |
| Chris Brayne | Labor | 13,308 | 32.6% | -5.3 |
| Esther Gleixner | Greens | 3,576 | 8.8% | -2.3 |
| Hank Leine | Freedom | 980 | 2.4% | New |
| Pamela Engelander | Animal Justice | 720 | 1.8% | New |
| Janny Dijkman | Family First | 638 | 1.6% | New |
| Jay Miller | Companions and Pets | 526 | 1.3% | New |
| Elizabeth Woolcock | Independent | 495 | 1.2% | New |
| Charelle Ainslie | Independent | 449 | 1.1% | New |
| Cynthia Skruzny | Democratic Labour | 369 | 0.9% | New |
| Steve Anger | Independent | 91 | 0.2% | New |
Final two in the count: Sam Groth (Liberal) 56.7% · Chris Brayne (Labor) 43.3%. 40,766 formal votes, 2,753 informal. The swing comparison uses the final-two figure in our worksheet, which differs from this count by a few tenths. (pollbludger.net)
Updated Version details
- Published
- 19 October 2026 at 12:37 am AEDT
- Data up to
- 16 October 2026
- Model
- Worksheet swing comparison 1.2.0, settings 1.4
- Version
- rel-20261018T133610Z-5cf34c2d